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Pirates vs. Nationals Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pirates vs. Nationals MLB game on July 5, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB
Pirates
Bubba Chandler 3-8, 4.62 ERA
11
5
Jul 5, 1:00 PM ET Nationals Park
Nationals
Cade Cavalli 5-4, 3.69 ERA
Jul 5, 1:00 PM ET Nationals Park
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pirates | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 0 |
Nationals | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Run Line
- Pirates
- Nationals
Win Probability
Last At Bat
Outs
CJ Abrams flies out to deep right field to Jared Triolo.
Quick Box Score
Hitting
Pitching
| No. | Player | Pos | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Griffin | SS | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1.100 |
| 2 | B. Lowe | 2B | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .200 | 1.000 |
| 3 | B. Reynolds | DH | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .200 | 1.000 |
| 4 | B. Cook | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 5 | R. O'Hearn | 1B | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .500 | 1.300 |
| 6 | N. Gonzales | 3B | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .750 | 1.800 |
| 7 | H. Davis | C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| 8 | J. Triolo | RF | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | 0.666 |
| 9 | J. Mangum | LF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .250 | 0.650 |
| No. | Player | Pos | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Wood | RF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .000 | 0.400 |
| 2 | L. García | 1B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .400 | 1.400 |
| 3 | C. Mead | 2B | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | 1.100 |
| 4 | C. Abrams | SS | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | 0.450 |
| 5 | D. Lile | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 6 | D. Crews | CF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .333 | 1.833 |
| 7 | J. Tena | DH | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .667 | 1.417 |
| 8 | A. Chaparro | 3B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0.000 |
| 9 | D. Millas | C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0.000 |
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Pirates vs. Nationals: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Pirates vs. Nationals
- Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Nationals Park
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Nationals favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 9.5
- Moneyline Odds: Pirates +122, Nationals -117
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Pirates: 44%
- Nationals: 56%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pirates a win probability of 44%, while the Nationals have a win probability of 56%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Nationals are more likely to beat the Pirates in the MLB game at Nationals Park on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Pirates vs. Nationals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.