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Read Article Pirates vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB action at Great American Ball Park on Sunday, beginning at 1:40 PM ET.
Chase Burns (12-1, 2.40 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Reds, up against Mitch Keller (6-7, 4.83 ERA) for the Pirates.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Reds as the most likely winner in this Pirates vs. Reds prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Pirates and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Reds a 56.6% chance of defeating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 59.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 54.7% chance of going over,.
Pirates vs. Reds odds [8/2/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +127 | -113 |
| Total | o8.5 (-110) | u8.5 (+106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds -1.5 | hard_rock+170 |
| Moneyline | Reds | -113 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -110 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Reds and Pirates at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Sunday, August 2, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Reds, with a 56.6% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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