Jul 23, 2026
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Read Article Phillies vs. Reds prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies will meet in MLB action at Great American Ball Park on Thursday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.
Brady Singer (3-8, 5.03 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Reds, while the Phillies are going with Jesús Luzardo (7-4, 3.74 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Phillies as the most likely winner of the Phillies vs. Reds game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Phillies a 57.4% chance of defeating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 52.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 51.2% chance of going over,.
Phillies vs. Reds odds [7/9/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (-104) | +1.5 (+104) |
| Moneyline | -163 | +163 |
| Total | o9.5 (+108) | u9.5 (-113) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | polymarket+104 |
| Moneyline | Reds | novig+163 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | polymarket+108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Reds and Phillies at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to start at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 57.4% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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