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Read Article Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, starting at 6:10 PM ET.
Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA) will start on the mound for the Phillies, while the Mets will counter with Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 50.9% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Mets vs. Phillies matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 50.9% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65.7% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 53.2% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Phillies odds [7/16/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (+167) |
| Moneyline | +115 | -115 |
| Total | o9.5 (+100) | u9.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -170 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +115 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 6:10 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026
- Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 50.9% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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