Sep 9, 2026
Twins vs. Tigers prediction: Detroit favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/9/2026]
Read Article Mets vs. Marlins prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Add Dimers on Google 
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 52.1% win probability for the Mets at loanDepot park.
The Miami Marlins and New York Mets are scheduled to meet in MLB action at loanDepot park on Wednesday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
Janson Junk (6-9, 4.00 ERA) will start on the mound for the Marlins, while the Mets have opted for Robert Stock (1-3, 5.81 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 52.1% win probability over the Marlins.
This article offers a complete Mets vs. Marlins prediction, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Marlins prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB game between the Mets and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mets a 52.1% chance of beating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 67.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 54.3% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-182) / Marlins -1.5 (+174)
- Moneyline: Mets +115, Marlins -117
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-108/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 65¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 47¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Marlins and Mets at loanDepot park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Wednesday, September 9, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 52.1% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Lock in for all of NFL & College Football. Every plan unlocks every model, tool and insight, only the billing term changes.
MOST FLEXIBLE
Monthly billed monthly
$29.99
Month to month Pay as you go RECOMMENDED
6 Months one payment
$99.99 $149.99
6 months $16.67 per month Save $79.95 · 44% Early bird price BEST VALUE
Annual first year
$149.99 $199.99
12 months $12.50 per month Save $209.89 · 58% Early bird price Every plan includes
Full site access
iOS & Android app
AI bet assistant
Unlimited picks & predictions
Unlimited best bets & props
Unlimited player projections
Private Discord community
Cancel or pause anytime
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
