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Read Article Mets vs. Marlins prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.5% win probability for the Mets at loanDepot park.
The Miami Marlins and New York Mets will meet in MLB action at loanDepot park on Wednesday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
The Marlins will start Janson Junk (6-9, 4.00 ERA), while the Mets will counter with Robert Stock (1-3, 5.81 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Marlins.
This article offers a complete Mets vs. Marlins prediction, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Marlins prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 51.5% chance of beating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 67.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 57.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-178) / Marlins -1.5 (+178)
- Moneyline: Mets +113, Marlins -115
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-113/+108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 64¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 47¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Mets at loanDepot park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Wednesday, September 9, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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