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Read Article Mets vs. Marlins prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 50.5% win probability for the Marlins at loanDepot park.
The Miami Marlins will take on the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at loanDepot park on Monday, beginning at 1:10 PM ET.
The Marlins will start Eury Pérez (7-10, 3.72 ERA), up against Jonah Tong (1-1, 3.60 ERA) for the Mets.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Marlins a slight edge with a 50.5% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers a complete Mets vs. Marlins prediction, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Marlins prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Marlins a 50.5% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 56.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-160) / Marlins -1.5 (+156)
- Moneyline: Mets +125, Marlins -127
- Total: Over/Under 8 (-109/+100)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 62¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 44¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8 @ -109 via BetRivers
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Monday's MLB game between the Marlins and Mets at loanDepot park is scheduled to begin at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
- Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Marlins, with a 50.5% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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