MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Ian Seymour [7/23/2026]
Get MLB player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 23, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Ian Seymour, Ryan Waldschmidt and Jorge Barrosa.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Padres vs. Braves and Twins vs. Guardians, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Thursday, 7/23
Sourced from 55+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 23, ranked by probability.
Ian Seymour over 4.5 hits allowed (-119)
- Edge: 9.6%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on Tampa Bay's Ian Seymour over 4.5 hits allowed. A probability of 63.9% gives this play an edge of 9.6% at -119 odds.
Ryan Waldschmidt over 0.5 bases (-125)
- Edge: 7.0%
- Probability: 62.6%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
Ryan Waldschmidt’s bases prop shows a 62.6% probability and an 7.0% edge at -125 odds, according to our model.
Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit (-145)
- Edge: 3.4%
- Probability: 62.6%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
The data highlights value on Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit, with simulations showing a 62.6% probability and a 3.4% edge at -145.
Jorge Barrosa to get a hit (-126)
- Edge: 6.6%
- Probability: 62.3%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Cardinals (5:15PM ET)
Our model finds value on Jorge Barrosa to get a hit, with a 62.3% probability and an edge of 6.6% at -126 odds.
Troy Melton under 17.5 outs recorded (-113)
- Edge: 6.3%
- Probability: 59.4%
- Game: Royals vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Troy Melton under 17.5 outs recorded for Detroit, showing an edge of 6.3% at -113 odds.
Ian Seymour over 1.5 walks allowed (+106)
- Edge: 9.4%
- Probability: 57.9%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
Ian Seymour’s walks allowed prop shows an edge of 9.4% at +106 odds, supported by a 57.9% probability according to our model.
Shane Bieber under 5.5 hits allowed (-113)
- Edge: 4.7%
- Probability: 57.8%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Shane Bieber under 5.5 hits allowed for Toronto, with a 57.8% probability and a 4.7% edge at -113 odds.
Chris Sale over 1.5 earned runs (-120)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 57.6%
- Game: Padres vs. Braves (12:15PM ET)
The data shows value on Chris Sale over 1.5 earned runs, supported by a 57.6% probability at -120 odds and an edge of 3.1%.
Shane Bieber under 1.5 walks allowed (+101)
- Edge: 7.5%
- Probability: 57.2%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
A 7.5% edge on the under 1.5 walks allowed line makes Shane Bieber a value play in Rays vs. Blue Jays, supported by a 57.2% probability at +101 odds.
Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs (-118)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 57.1%
- Game: Rays vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET)
Simulations show value on Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs here, with a 57.1% probability and 2.9% edge at -118 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Thursday, July 23, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 3:28AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Ian Seymour over 4.5 hits allowed | -119 @ DraftKings | 9.6% | 63.9% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Ryan Waldschmidt over 0.5 bases | -125 @ Fanatics | 7.0% | 62.6% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Ryan Waldschmidt to get a hit | -145 @ Fanatics | 6.6% | 62.3% |
| D-Backs vs. Cardinals | Jorge Barrosa to get a hit | -126 @ DraftKings | 6.6% | 62.3% |
| Royals vs. Tigers | Troy Melton under 17.5 outs recorded | -113 @ DraftKings | 6.3% | 59.4% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Ian Seymour over 1.5 walks allowed | +106 @ DraftKings | 9.4% | 57.9% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Shane Bieber under 5.5 hits allowed | -113 @ DraftKings | 4.7% | 57.8% |
| Padres vs. Braves | Chris Sale over 1.5 earned runs | -120 @ BetMGM | 3.1% | 57.6% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Shane Bieber under 1.5 walks allowed | +101 @ DraftKings | 7.5% | 57.2% |
| Rays vs. Blue Jays | Shane Bieber under 2.5 earned runs | -118 @ DraftKings | 2.9% | 57.1% |
Conclusion
For July 23, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Ian Seymour, Ryan Waldschmidt and Jorge Barrosa. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
