Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Wednesday has +460 odds [7/22/2026]

Our analysis shows Adell leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.5% chance to go deep, followed by Hunter Goodman (20.9%) and Shohei Ohtani (20.8%).

Mike Trout and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Wednesday's home run picks [7/22/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Jo Adell (Angels) to hit a home run

• Probability: 23.5%
• Odds: +460
• Edge: 5.7%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Angels (4:07 PM EDT)
• Pitching matchup: Hunter Dobbins

Ranked top of today’s home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Jo Adell rates as a value play at +460 with BetRivers, showing a 5.7% edge.

Set to face Hunter Dobbins in tonight's Cardinals-Angels matchup, the data supports Adell as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 13 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For July 22, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Jo Adell, Hunter Goodman and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Adell in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.7% edge at +460 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.