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Read Article Home run predictions for Dinger Tuesday include Hunter Goodman, Kyle Schwarber [7/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, July 21, 2026, feature Hunter Goodman as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for July 21, 2026
See which hitters join Goodman on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +680.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman (Rockies) | 23.9% |
| Mickey Moniak (Rockies) | 21.2% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 20.9% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 20.7% |
| Jake Burger (Rangers) | 20.6% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 20.2% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 18.8% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 18.3% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 18.0% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 17.9% |
Our analysis shows Goodman leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.9% chance to go deep, followed by Mickey Moniak (21.2%) and Jo Adell (20.9%).
Kyle Schwarber and Jake Burger are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [7/21/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Austin Riley (Braves) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16.7%
- Odds: fanatics+680
- Edge: 3.9%
- Game: Padres vs. Braves (7:15 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Walker Buehler
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Atlanta slugger Austin Riley rates as a value play at +680 with fanatics, showing a 3.9% edge.
With Walker Buehler on the mound for the Padres, the data supports Riley as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, when bettors look for value in home run props across a packed MLB slate.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to a total of 11 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 21, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Austin Riley who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.9% edge at +680 odds.
Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Tuesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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