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Read Article Home run predictions for Thursday include Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, July 9, 2026, feature Kyle Schwarber as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for July 9, 2026
See which hitters join Schwarber on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1000.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.3% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 19.7% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 19.3% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 18.7% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 17.9% |
| Eugenio Suárez (Reds) | 16.9% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 16.4% |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | 16.1% |
| Tyler O'Neill (Orioles) | 15.9% |
| Jorge Polanco (Mets) | 15.9% |
Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.3% chance to go yard, followed by Juan Soto (19.7%) and Cal Raleigh (19.3%).
Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [7/9/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, highlights today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Christian Yelich (Brewers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 11.7%
- Odds: fanatics+1000
- Edge: 2.6%
- Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Andre Pallante
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Milwaukee slugger Christian Yelich rates as a value play at +1000 with fanatics, showing a 2.6% edge.
Against Cardinals starter Andre Pallante, the data supports Yelich as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For July 9, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto and Cal Raleigh projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Christian Yelich who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.6% edge at +1000 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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