Home run predictions for Monday include Fernando Tatis, Aaron Judge [9/14/2026]

• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 23.4% probability
• Manny Machado (Padres): 21.2%
• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 20.7%
• Jackson Merrill (Padres): 19.5%
• Juan Soto (Mets): 18.7%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 18.0%
• Francisco Alvarez (Mets): 17.0%
• Luis Campusano (Padres): 16.8%
• Hunter Goodman (Rockies): 16.1%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 15.6%

Our analysis shows Tatis leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.4% chance to go yard, followed by Manny Machado (21.2%) and Aaron Judge (20.7%).

Jackson Merrill and Juan Soto are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Monday's home run picks [9/14/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Francisco Alvarez (Mets) to hit a home run

• Probability: 17%
• Odds: +650
• Edge: 3.6%
• Pitching matchup: Brandon Young
• More game projections: Orioles vs. Mets prediction (7:10 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Francisco Alvarez rates as a value play at +650 with Fanatics, showing a 3.6% edge.

Against Orioles starter Brandon Young, the data supports Alvarez as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 14, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Aaron Judge projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Francisco Alvarez who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.6% edge at +650 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Monday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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