Home run predictions for Saturday include Cal Raleigh, Aaron Judge [9/12/2026]

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 27.0% probability
• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 22.2%
• Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): 21.1%
• Jo Adell (Guardians): 20.4%
• Taylor Ward (Mariners): 19.1%
• Dominic Canzone (Mariners): 18.1%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.8%
• Josh Naylor (Mariners): 17.8%
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 17.7%
• Spencer Torkelson (Tigers): 17.5%

Our analysis shows Raleigh leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 27.0% chance to go deep, followed by Aaron Judge (22.2%) and Julio Rodríguez (21.1%).

Jo Adell and Taylor Ward are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Saturday's home run picks [9/12/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Josh Naylor (Mariners) to hit a home run

• Probability: 17.8%
• Odds: +700
• Edge: 5.3%
• Pitching matchup: Gage Jump
• More game projections: Mariners vs. Athletics prediction (9:40 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Seattle slugger Josh Naylor rates as a value play at +700 with Fanatics, showing a 5.3% edge.

Against Athletics starter Gage Jump, the data supports Naylor as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 27 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 12, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Aaron Judge and Julio Rodríguez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Josh Naylor who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.3% edge at +700 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Saturday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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