Cubs vs. Brewers prediction: Why Milwaukee is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [9/8/2026]
Dimers' simulation model projects a 60.4% win probability for the Brewers at American Family Field.

MLB action continues on Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET as the Chicago Cubs take on the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field.
The Brewers will have Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.97 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against David Peterson (7-8, 5.39 ERA) for the Cubs.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Brewers as the most likely winner in this Cubs vs. Brewers prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Jacob Misiorowski's pitching projections.
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction and odds
Our independent predictive model gives the Brewers a 60.4% chance of defeating the Cubs.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 56.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 52.9% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-108) / Brewers -1.5 (+108)
- Moneyline: Cubs +194, Brewers -194
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+117/-117)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Cubs @ 34¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 46¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Brewers and Cubs at American Family Field is scheduled to start at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Date: Tuesday, September 8, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: American Family Field
Conclusion
We predict the Brewers, with a 60.4% win probability, will likely beat the Cubs in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.




