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Read Article Cubs vs. Marlins prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 57.6% win probability for the Cubs at loanDepot park.
MLB action continues on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET as the Chicago Cubs lock horns with the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park.
Tyler Phillips (4-6, 3.43 ERA) will start for the Marlins, while the Cubs are going with Clay Holmes (6-6, 2.09 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Cubs vs. Marlins prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Marlins prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Cubs and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Cubs a 57.6% chance of beating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 54.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 53.3% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+127) / Marlins +1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Cubs -127, Marlins +125
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+108/-111)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 @ 44¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Cubs @ 56¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 48¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Cubs at loanDepot park is scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 57.6% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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