Cruz Azul vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Cruz Azul vs. Toluca Liga MX match on February 7, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
Get 6 months of Dimers Pro for just $99.99
FINAL
LIGA MX
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Cruz Azul
1
:
1
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
Cruz AzulCRA
Paulinho (41')
Soccer ball icon
J. Paradela (77')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Cruz Azul
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Rossi replaces F. Romero
  2. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: A. Garcia replaces J. Paradela
  3. 77'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Cruz Azul by J. Paradela
    1-1
  4. 76'
    Yellow Card
    L. Romero (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  5. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces J. Angulo
  6. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces S. Simon
  7. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: L. Romero replaces C. Rodriguez
  8. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: A. Morales replaces J. Marquez
  9. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: C. Ebere replaces M. Levy
  10. 53'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces N. Castro
  11. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: J. Rodarte replaces O. Campos
  12. 41'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Gallardo
    0-1

Cruz Azul vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Cruz Azul vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, February 7, 2026
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Cruz Azul +295, Toluca -110, draw +270
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/+100)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Cruz Azul: 27.0%
  • Toluca: 49.3%
  • Draw: 23.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca (11.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with Dimers Pro—cancel anytime.

Who will win Cruz Azul vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 49.3%.

The most likely correct score is Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Get Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Cruz Azul vs. Toluca, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.