Osasuna vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Osasuna vs. Real Madrid La Liga match on February 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Real Madrid
1
2
Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna
Estadio El Sadar
OsasunaOSA
Score Summary
Real MadridRMA
A. Budimir (pen.) (38')
Soccer ball icon
R. Garcia (90')
Soccer ball icon
Vinicius Junior (73')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Osasuna
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Real Madrid
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Osasuna by R. Garcia, assisted by R. Moro
    1-2
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    D. Alaba (Real Madrid) cautioned
  3. 88'
    Yellow Card
    Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) cautioned
  4. 84'
    Yellow Card
    T. Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid) cautioned
  5. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: I. Arguibide replaces V. Rosier
  6. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: R. Moro replaces J. Moncayola
  7. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Ceballos replaces A. Guler
  8. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: G. Garcia replaces F. Valverde
  9. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by Vinicius Junior, assisted by F. Valverde
    1-1
  10. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: I. Munoz replaces A. Oroz
  11. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: R. Garcia replaces A. Budimir
  12. 66'
    Yellow Card
    J. Moncayola (Osasuna) cautioned
  13. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Osasuna: A. Bretones replaces R. Garcia
  14. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces E. Camavinga
  15. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: T. Alexander-Arnold replaces D. Carvajal
  16. 38'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Osasuna by A. Budimir (pen.)
    0-1
  17. 37'
    Yellow Card
    T. Courtois (Real Madrid) cautioned
  18. 32'
    Yellow Card
    A. Oroz (Osasuna) cautioned

Osasuna vs. Real Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Osasuna vs. Real Madrid
  • Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio El Sadar

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Osasuna +380, Real Madrid -135, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-152/+128)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Osasuna: 23.5%
  • Real Madrid: 53.1%
  • Draw: 23.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid (11.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Osasuna vs. Real Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 53.1%.

The most likely correct score is Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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