Atletico Madrid vs. Osasuna prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/16/2026]

Atletico Madrid and Osasuna are scheduled to meet in La Liga at Metropolitano Stadium on Wednesday, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven La Liga model projects Atletico Madrid as the most likely winner in this Atletico Madrid vs. Osasuna prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Atletico Madrid vs. Osasuna prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's La Liga match between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 65.7% chance of Atletico Madrid winning, a 13.5% chance for Osasuna, and a 20.8% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 50.7% chance of going over., with a 54.7% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Osasuna +1011, Atletico Madrid -295
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+156)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Osasuna @ +1011 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +156 via Polymarket

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Atletico Madrid win being the most probable:

• Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna (13.1% probability)
• Atletico Madrid 2-0 Osasuna (12.8%)
• Atletico Madrid 1-1 Osasuna (9.8%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 45.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 54.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's La Liga game between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna at Metropolitano Stadium is scheduled to begin in the USA at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atletico Madrid vs. Osasuna
• Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Metropolitano Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Atletico Madrid has a 65.7% win probability on Wednesday, Osasuna has a 13.5% win probability, and there is a 20.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.