Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad prediction, odds, La Liga picks [11/1/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's La Liga match between Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 44.1% chance of Athletic Bilbao winning, a 31.0% chance for Real Sociedad, and a 25.0% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 53.2% chance of going over., with a 56.4% chance that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Real Sociedad +239, Athletic Bilbao +122
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-138/+127)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Real Sociedad @ +239 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +127 via Polymarket

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad (11.8% probability)
• Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Sociedad (9.4%)
• Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad (9.1%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 56.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 43.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's La Liga matchup between Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad is scheduled to commence in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad
• Date: Sunday, November 1, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00 PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Athletic Bilbao has a 44.1% win probability on Sunday, Real Sociedad has a 31.0% win probability, and there is a 25.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.