Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [10/10/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's La Liga match between Alaves and Atletico Madrid, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 23.4% chance of Alaves winning, a 52.5% chance for Atletico Madrid, and a 24.2% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51.2% chance of going over., with a 52.7% chance that both teams find the net.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Atletico Madrid -117, Alaves +376
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-108/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Alaves @ +376 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +104 via Polymarket

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid (11.5% probability)
• Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid (11%)
• Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid (9.7%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.7% chance of both Alaves and Atletico Madrid finding the net and a 47.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga game between Alaves and Atletico Madrid at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to begin in the United States at 10:15 AM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 10:15 AM ET/7:15AM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 23.4% win probability on Saturday, Atletico Madrid has a 52.5% win probability, and there is a 24.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.