Leeds vs. Newcastle Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Leeds vs. Newcastle Premier League match on September 14, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
PREMIER LEAGUE
FINAL
EPL sport icon
PREMIER LEAGUE
Newcastle
1
4
Elland Road
Leeds
Elland Road
LeedsLU
Score Summary
NewcastleNEW
L. Miley (o.g.) (32')
Soccer ball icon
J. Bogle (34')
Soccer ball icon
D. Calvert-Lewin (45')
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N. Okafor (59')
Soccer ball icon
B. Toure (90')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Leeds
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Newcastle
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Newcastle by B. Toure
    1-4
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    V. Livramento (Newcastle) cautioned
  3. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: S. Longstaff replaces A. Stach
  4. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: D. James replaces J. Bogle
  5. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: A. Bamba replaces L. Miley
  6. 78'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: L. Nmecha replaces D. Calvert-Lewin
  7. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: H. Wilson replaces N. Okafor
  8. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: B. Aaronson replaces A. Tanaka
  9. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: M. Bard replaces G. Gudmundsson
  10. 59'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by N. Okafor
    0-4
  11. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: V. Livramento replaces A. Dedic
  12. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: B. Toure replaces J. Murphy
  13. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: J. Willock replaces M. Fernandez-Pardo
  14. 54'
    Yellow Card
    J. Murphy (Newcastle) cautioned
  15. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by D. Calvert-Lewin, assisted by T. Muharemovic
    0-3
  16. 44'
    Yellow Card
    D. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) cautioned
  17. 34'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by J. Bogle, assisted by D. Calvert-Lewin
    0-2
  18. 32'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by L. Miley (o.g.)
    0-1
  19. 19'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Newcastle: S. Steur replaces Nico

Leeds vs. Newcastle: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Leeds vs. Newcastle
  • Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Elland Road

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Leeds 41¢, Newcastle 32¢, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (54¢/43¢)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Leeds: 42.5%
  • Newcastle: 32.8%
  • Draw: 24.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Leeds 1-1 Newcastle (11.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Leeds vs. Newcastle? Prediction & correct score

Leeds is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 42.5%.

The most likely correct score is Leeds 1-1 Newcastle.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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