Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction, odds, Premier League picks [9/6/2026]

Premier League action continues on Sunday at 11:30 AM ET as Chelsea squares off with Arsenal at Emirates Stadium.

Dimers' advanced Premier League model projects Arsenal as the most likely winner in this Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

For more, check out our view into the Premier League title race, and the best value bets to take in EPL futures right now.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Premier League match between Arsenal and Chelsea, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 56.2% chance of Arsenal winning, a 21.6% chance for Chelsea, and a 22.2% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58.0% chance of going over, with a 56.9% probability that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Chelsea +413, Arsenal -133
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-122/+125)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Chelsea @ +413 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -122 via Polymarket

According to our best Premier League bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Arsenal 1-1 Chelsea (10.3% probability)
• Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea (9.9%)
• Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea (9.4%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 56.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 43.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's Premier League game between Arsenal and Chelsea at Emirates Stadium is scheduled to start in the USA at 11:30 AM ET.

• Who: Arsenal vs. Chelsea
• Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
• Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
• Venue: Emirates Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Arsenal has a 56.2% win probability on Sunday, Chelsea has a 21.6% win probability, and there is a 22.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.