Virginia vs. SMU prediction favors Southern Methodist to win in college football Week 7 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Virginia vs. SMU, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Southern Methodist a 75.0% chance of beating Virginia. Our predicted final score has Southern Methodist winning 30-21. According to our model, Virginia (+9.5) has a 52.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 51.5-point over/under has a 51.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Virginia +9.5 (-105) / SMU -9.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Virginia +290, SMU -360
• Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Virginia +9.5 @ -105 via FanDuel
• Moneyline: Virginia @ +290 via bet365
• Total: Over 51.5 @ -110 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Virginia +9.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between SMU and Virginia at Gerald J. Ford Stadium is scheduled to commence at 12:00 PM ET.

• Who: Virginia vs. Southern Methodist
• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
• Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Southern Methodist, with a 75.0% win probability, will likely beat Virginia in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.