Tarleton State vs. Austin Peay prediction: Why Austin Peay is favored to win in college football Week 6 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Tarleton State vs. Austin Peay, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Austin Peay a 59.4% chance of beating Tarleton State. Our predicted final score has Austin Peay winning 32-29. According to our model, Austin Peay (-1.5) has a 53.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 62.5-point over/under has a 53.2% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Tarleton State +1.5 (-101) / Austin Peay -1.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Tarleton State +120, Austin Peay -135
• Total: Over/Under 62.5 (-105/-117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Austin Peay -1.5 @ -115 via bet365
• Moneyline: Austin Peay @ -135 via bet365
• Total: Under 62.5 @ -117 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Austin Peay to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between Austin Peay and Tarleton State at Fortera Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tarleton State vs. Austin Peay
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Fortera Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Austin Peay, with a 59.4% win probability, will likely beat Tarleton State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.