Ohio State vs. Iowa preview: Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes test the nation's No. 1 scoring defense at Kinnick

It's been almost a decade since Ohio State vs. Iowa has taken place in Iowa City, but it returns for one of the biggest matchups of the entire college football betting slate, and our college football predictions set up a thriller.

Iowa is 4-0 after a last-play touchdown at Michigan, and No. 5 Ohio State is walking into the building where they lost by 30 in their last meeting on Iowa's home turf.

Heading into Ohio State vs. Iowa, the Hawkeyes owns the nation's No. 1 scoring defense at 8.0 points per game, giving up just 32 points and fewer than 1,000 total yards allowed through four games.

Ohio State isn't the best offense in the country, but it ranks top 10 in scoring (45.0 points per game) and total offense (522 yards per game).

Something has to give at Kinnick Stadium in Week 5.

Ohio State vs. Iowa analysis

After running 10,000 simulations and our subsequent updates, Ohio State wins this matchup 85% of the time, with a projected final score of Ohio State 31, Iowa 16.

That puts the Buckeyes just north of covering the 14.5-point spread, though we predict that result at a near 50/50 split.

Now, Iowa has allowed 8 points per game, but their four wins have come against Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa and Michigan, a schedule ranked 67th in strength.

Ohio State's projected 31-point output is well above their season average, framing just how wide of a gap there is between the Buckeyes' offense and that of Iowa's opponents so far.

Where Ohio State's points come from

Dimers' model doesn't expect Iowa to slow Ohio State much, at least not Heisman Trophy favorite Jeremiah Smith.

Smith clears 123.5 receiving yards in 57.8% of simulations. Iowa allows 152 passing yards per game as a team, and the model has one receiver getting close to that alone. Smith catches 8 or more passes 68.4% of the time, scores 77.3% of the time, and scores twice 38.7% of the time.

But it's not all upside for the Buckeyes.

RB Ja'Kobi Jackson projects under 37.5 rushing yards (56.4%), RB Bo Jackson under 14.5 receiving yards (62.9%), and TE Nate Roberts under 16.5 receiving yards (58.0%). Modest lines compared to the triple-digit upside for Smith, but the unders do point to a less productive day from the rest of the skill position group for Ohio State.

If Iowa holds Smith in check, this game could flip on its head quickly.

Iowa's path to a win

Iowa's 15% path is about possessions: run the ball, move the chains, keep Smith on the sideline. The overs from our best college football player props point to who carries that plan.

• RB Kamari Moulton goes over 55.5 rushing yards in 58.0% of simulations, behind a run game averaging over 6.5 yards per carry
• TE DJ Vonnahme clears 31.5 receiving yards 70.3% of the time, the biggest edge in this game at 17.1%. He also scores in 21.9% of simulations for an edge against +500 odds
• WR Tony Diaz goes over 4.5 receptions (68.8%) and over 53.5 receiving yards (56.6%).
• Reece Vander Zee, the hero with 2 TDs at Michigan, clears 23.5 receiving yards 57.5% of the time.

Ultimately, the game script our model projects if Iowa keeps this close looks to be containing Smith in the passing game with a bend-but-don't-break defense, while funneling their offense through Moulton to keep control of the pace.

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