Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction: Why Middle Tennessee is favored to win in college football Week 1 [2026]

Middle Tennessee will take on Murray State in Week 1 college football action at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium on Saturday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced college football model projects Middle Tennessee as the most likely winner in this Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Middle Tennessee a 92.6% chance of beating Murray State. Our predicted final score has Middle Tennessee winning 37-15.

According to our model, Murray State (+23.5) has a 51.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 55.5-point over/under has a 56.8% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Murray State +23.5 (-115) / Middle Tennessee -23.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Murray State +1200, Middle Tennessee -1800
• Total: Over/Under 55.5 (-106/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Murray State +23.5 @ -115 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Murray State @ +1200 via FanDuel
• Total: Under 55.5 @ -105 via bet365

According to our best college football bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 55.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Middle Tennessee and Murray State at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee
• Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

College football Week 1 promos

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Conclusion

We predict Middle Tennessee, with a 92.6% win probability, will likely beat Murray State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.