College football week 7 betting preview: Top players to watch and ranked spread picks

Dimers' predictive model simulated each game 10,000 times to produce the win probabilities and projected scores below.

#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Indiana

Indiana hosts Ohio State in a top-five clash at Memorial Stadium as one of the country’s remaining unbeatens, while Ohio State arrives one slip away from a second loss after falling at Texas back in Week 2.

The Hoosiers are 6-0 but needed everything to get past Nebraska 20-17 last week. while the Buckeyes rolled Maryland 45-16, running for 207 yards. Both defenses rank among the nation’s stingiest: Indiana allows 11.8 points per game (5th) and Ohio State 13.2 (8th).

The Buckeyes also have a score to settle, having lost the 2025 Big Ten title game 13-10 to Indiana.

Ohio State is a 3.5-point road favorite (-166 moneyline) with the total at 51. The Dimers model gives the Buckeyes a 61.9% chance to win, roughly in line with the market, and projects a 27-23 final score.

That four-point margin puts the spread close to a coin flip, with Ohio State covering 50.1% of the time.

#6 Alabama vs. #14 Tennessee

Both teams are 5-1, so the loser of Alabama vs. Tennessee takes a second defeat and a potentially serious hit to its College Football Playoff hopes.

Alabama is coming off a 20-17 home loss to Georgia that cost the Crimson Tide its unbeaten season. Tennessee bounced back with a road win at Arkansas, although Josh Heupel has yet to name a starting quarterback for Saturday in the wake of starter Faizon Brandon's shoulder injury.

The Tide lost on their last two trips to Knoxville, 52-49 in 2022 and 24-17 in 2024, but Kalen DeBoer’s team is an 8.5-point road favorite (-325) this time around.

The Dimers model has Alabama winning 75.1% of the time, slightly below the market’s implied probability of 76.5%. Covering the 8.5 points away from home comes with more difficulty and a 49.5% probability from our model.

#2 Notre Dame vs. #8 BYU

This is the only ranked game this week between two unbeatens, and the first matchup of top-10 teams in LaVell Edwards Stadium history, Notre Dame vs. BYU.

Notre Dame is 6-0 after a 58-7 rout of Stanford, though all six of its opponents have been unranked and it has won by an average of more than 30 points per game. BYU is 5-0 after beating Iowa State 24-10, with quarterback Bear Bachmeier throwing for 329 yards and running for 109.

The Cougars will be without running back LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, who is out at least a month with a foot injury, and Notre Dame is a 10-point favorite (-380) with a 46.5 game total.

The Dimers model gives the Irish a 77.2% win probability, a touch below the market, and projects a 28-19 final. That nine-point margin falls just short of the line, so BYU at +10 is the lean against the spread.

Dimers' spread picks for ranked games in Week 7

Including the games above, these are the Dimers model's cover probabilities for the favorite in every Week 7 game involving a ranked team, sorted from highest to lowest:

• Oklahoma -6.5 (53.2%) vs. No. 15 Kentucky
• No. 22 LSU -14 (51.9%) vs. No. 16 Mississippi State
• Michigan State -7.5 (51.9%) vs. No. 25 Northwestern
• No. 10 Texas Tech -14.5 (51.8%) vs. Arizona State
• No. 20 Houston -4 (51.4%) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State
• No. 11 Utah -15.5 (51.4%) @ Colorado
• Oregon -7.5 (51.3%) vs. Nebraska
• No. 3 Miami -21 (50.4%) vs. Florida State
• No. 4 Ohio State -3.5 (50.1%) @ No. 5 Indiana
• No. 12 UCLA -2.5 (50.0%) vs. Wisconsin
• No. 1 Georgia -30.5 (49.9%) vs. Auburn
• No. 7 Texas -10.5 (49.5%) vs. Florida
• No. 6 Alabama -8.5 (49.5%) @ No. 14 Tennessee
• No. 9 Ole Miss -6.5 (49.4%) vs. No. 13 Missouri
• No. 2 Notre Dame -10.5 (47.7%) @ No. 8 BYU
• No. 24 SMU -9.5 (47.3%) vs. Virginia

Top college football players to watch in Week 7

These are players who need to be on your radar this weekend, whether for player prop betting or keeping tabs on the Heisman race:

QB Brad Jackson (Texas State)

Jackson has the full touchdown ladder this week, and the Dimers model likes every rung.

It gives him an 80.5% chance to score, 44.0% to score twice, 17.9% to score first, and 16.2% to score three or more.

The Anytime and 2+ props carry a "Caution" tag at their current prices, meaning our discrepancy is larger than we usually see, with more conservative value plays as the 3+ longshot, which lands in our Sweet Spot or his First TD prop. 

Texas State’s games have turned into shootouts and this game environment backs it up too, the over in Colorado State-Texas State is one of our model’s highest-probability totals this week at 56.3%.

WR Chris Reed (Sam Houston State)

As of publishing, Chris Reed is the only player on the board with a 2+ touchdown prop in our Sweet Spot.

We give him a 15.4% chance to score twice, against a +2200 price at DraftKings that implies just 4.3%. That is an 11.0% edge and a projected 21.9% ROI, which also earns a High Edge tag. Reed is Sam Houston’s go-to big-play receiver and has been a reliable scorer, finding the end zone in three of the Bearkats’ five games, including a 93-yard day at Tulsa.

Two touchdowns is a long shot by nature, but at +2200 the price is far longer than it should be.

WR Nick Marsh (Indiana)

Nick Marsh comes into the biggest game of Indiana’s season with an edge on both his touchdown and yardage props, at 63.0% to clear 75.5 receiving yards (best odds -114, 9.7% edge) and 51.4% to score (+117, 5.4% edge).

He has scored in all but one game this season and has already matched his career high with six touchdown catches, coming off his best game as a Hoosier with two fourth-quarter touchdowns, a 75-yarder and the 44-yard game-winner on fourth-and-1, to beat Nebraska.

That also made it back-to-back games with 120+ receiving yards, both season highs.

Quarterback Josh Hoover hasn’t thrown an interception all season and already has three games with four or more touchdown passes.

Ohio State’s defense, allowing 13.2 points per game, is the toughest test Marsh has seen, but the upside carries plenty of value.

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 7

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

Across game lines and props, these markets below are where we are seeing the biggest returns so far this season in Moneylines with a 10% edge or higher. 

That means when we most disagree with the books, we're also the most right.

Additionally, both 3+ and 2+ touchdown props are returning right around 20% ROI each this season, pointing to a long-term consistency in a highly volatile market.

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