Valparaiso vs. South Dakota State prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 11, 2026

Valparaiso is favored to beat South Dakota State at First Bank and Trust Arena on Wednesday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Valparaiso vs. South Dakota State prediction gives the Beacons a 56.9% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the over 143.5 points.

Valparaiso vs. South Dakota State key predictions

• Predicted score: Valparaiso 73-72 South Dakota State
• Valparaiso win probability: 56.9%
• South Dakota State win probability: 43.1%
• Valparaiso -1.5 spread: 50.6% cover probability
• Over 143.5 points: 54.1% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Valparaiso vs. South Dakota State odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Valparaiso moneyline: -122 (FanDuel)
• South Dakota State moneyline: +107 (BetRivers)
• Valparaiso -1.5: -110 (FanDuel)
• South Dakota State +1.5: -102 (DraftKings)
• Over 143.5 points: -107 (BetRivers)
• Under 143.5 points: -117 (BetRivers)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Valparaiso vs. South Dakota State pick: Over 143.5 (-107)

Our model makes Valparaiso the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the over 143.5 total points at -107 on BetRivers.

Those odds give the over an implied probability of 51.7%, while our model puts it at 54.1%.

That's a 2.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
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Valparaiso vs. South Dakota State game details

• Matchup: Valparaiso Beacons vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
• Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: First Bank and Trust Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

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