Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Lightning NHL game on April 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Canadiens
2
3
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123OTT
Canadiens
1 1 0 0 2
Lightning
1 0 1 1 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Canadiens
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Canadiens
1 1 0 0 2
Lightning
1 0 1 1 3
OT1 12:48 Goal scored by J.J. Moser
OT1 12:32 Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Jayden Struble
OT1 07:20 Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Jakub Dobes
OT1 07:15 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
OT1 04:20 Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Phillip Danault
OT1 03:29 Cole Caufield shot blocked by teammate
OT1 01:29 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jakub Dobes
OT1 01:05 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jakub Dobes
OT1 01:03 Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
OT1 00:42 Nick Suzuki shot blocked by J.J. Moser
P3 19:26 Power play - Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:57 Power play - Shot missed by Lane Hutson
P3 16:31 Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 14:06 Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 13:58 Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Brayden Point
P3 12:30 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 09:54 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 08:07 Shorthanded - Josh Anderson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P3 07:01 Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P3 06:17 Shot on goal by Alexandre Texier saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
  1. OT1 20:00
    End of 1st OT.
  2. OT1 20:00
    End of 1st OT.
  3. OT1 12:48
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  4. OT1 12:48
    GOAL
    Goal scored by J.J. Moser
    2-3
  5. OT1 12:42
    Stoppage - Icing
  6. OT1 12:32
    SHOT
    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Jayden Struble
  7. OT1 11:00
    Cole Caufield credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
  8. OT1 10:36
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  9. OT1 10:36
    Stoppage - Offside
  10. OT1 09:06
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  11. OT1 09:06
    Stoppage - Offside
  12. OT1 08:35
    Stoppage - Icing
  13. OT1 07:47
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  14. OT1 07:35
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  15. OT1 07:35
    Stoppage - Offside
  16. OT1 07:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Jakub Dobes
  17. OT1 07:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  18. OT1 06:04
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  19. OT1 04:55
    Alex Newhook won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  20. OT1 04:20
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Phillip Danault
  21. OT1 03:29
    SHOT
    Cole Caufield shot blocked by teammate
  22. OT1 03:00
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  23. OT1 03:00
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  24. OT1 01:43
    Jake Evans credited with hit on Declan Carlile in neutral zone
  25. OT1 01:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jakub Dobes
  26. OT1 01:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jakub Dobes
  27. OT1 01:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  28. OT1 00:42
    SHOT
    Nick Suzuki shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  29. OT1 00:06
    Cole Caufield credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in neutral zone
  30. OT1 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  31. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  32. P3 19:26
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  33. P3 18:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Lane Hutson
  34. P3 17:45
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  35. P3 17:45
    Penalty to Scott Sabourin 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Josh Anderson)
  36. P3 16:35
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  37. P3 16:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jakub Dobes
  38. P3 15:02
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Jayden Struble in offensive zone
  39. P3 14:55
    Corey Perry credited with hit on Jake Evans in offensive zone
  40. P3 14:45
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Jake Evans in neutral zone
  41. P3 14:45
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  42. P3 14:38
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  43. P3 14:29
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  44. P3 14:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
  45. P3 13:58
    SHOT
    Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Brayden Point
  46. P3 12:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  47. P3 11:09
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  48. P3 11:04
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Alex Newhook in offensive zone
  49. P3 11:04
    Stoppage - Icing
  50. P3 10:23
    Stoppage - Icing
  51. P3 09:54
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  52. P3 08:50
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  53. P3 08:07
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Josh Anderson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
  54. P3 07:43
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
  55. P3 07:43
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  56. P3 07:01
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  57. P3 06:32
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  58. P3 06:32
    Penalty to Ivan Demidov 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Dominic James)
  59. P3 06:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alexandre Texier saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 05:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Josh Anderson
  61. P3 05:23
    Josh Anderson credited with hit on Scott Sabourin in offensive zone
  62. P3 05:07
    SHOT
    Corey Perry shot blocked by teammate
  63. P3 05:05
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  64. P3 04:44
    Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Juraj Slafkovský in defensive zone
  65. P3 04:32
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  66. P3 04:13
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  67. P3 04:05
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  68. P3 04:05
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  69. P3 04:02
    Canadiens won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  70. P3 04:02
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  71. P3 03:37
    Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  72. P3 03:37
    Stoppage - Offside
  73. P3 02:34
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Alex Newhook in offensive zone
  74. P3 02:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  75. P3 02:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
  76. P3 02:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
  77. P3 02:15
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
  78. P3 01:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  79. P3 01:44
    Alexandre Carrier credited with hit on Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  80. P3 01:16
    Power play - Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  81. P3 01:16
    Stoppage - Net Dislodged Offensive Skater
  82. P3 01:16
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Cole Caufield
  83. P3 00:44
    Power play - Phillip Danault won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  84. P3 00:44
    Stoppage - High Stick
  85. P3 00:00
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  86. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  87. P2 19:26
    SHOT
    Power play - Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  88. P2 19:19
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  89. P2 18:48
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  90. P2 18:48
    Stoppage - Icing
  91. P2 18:36
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  92. P2 18:16
    SHOT
    Jayden Struble shot blocked by Nick Paul
  93. P2 15:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  94. P2 15:35
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  95. P2 15:06
    Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  96. P2 14:38
    SHOT
    Corey Perry shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj
  97. P2 14:00
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  98. P2 14:00
    Stoppage - Offside
  99. P2 13:31
    Erik Cernak credited with hit on Ivan Demidov in defensive zone
  100. P2 13:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  101. P2 12:36
    SHOT
    Jayden Struble shot blocked by teammate
  102. P2 12:30
    Alex Newhook won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  103. P2 12:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  104. P2 11:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  105. P2 10:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  106. P2 10:27
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  107. P2 10:23
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Alex Newhook in offensive zone
  108. P2 09:50
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jakub Dobes
  109. P2 09:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  110. P2 09:04
    Shorthanded - Phillip Danault won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  111. P2 09:04
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  112. P2 08:39
    Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Jake Evans in neutral zone
  113. P2 08:39
    Stoppage - High Stick
  114. P2 08:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  115. P2 08:20
    Power play - Nick Paul won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  116. P2 08:20
    Penalty to Kaiden Guhle 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Nikita Kucherov)
  117. P2 08:16
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
  118. P2 07:51
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  119. P2 07:51
    Stoppage - Offside
  120. P2 07:30
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  121. P2 07:30
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  122. P2 07:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Corey Perry
  123. P2 06:23
    Giveaway by Brayden Point in neutral zone
  124. P2 06:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Phillip Danault
  125. P2 05:38
    Alexandre Texier credited with hit on Declan Carlile in offensive zone
  126. P2 05:35
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  127. P2 05:35
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  128. P2 05:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  129. P2 05:14
    Penalty to Brandon Hagel 2 minutes for Misconduct
  130. P2 05:14
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  131. P2 04:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
  132. P2 03:18
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
  133. P2 03:18
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  134. P2 02:47
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  135. P2 02:43
    Corey Perry won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  136. P2 02:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  137. P2 02:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Jakub Dobes
  138. P2 01:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  139. P2 01:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  140. P2 00:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Cole Caufield
  141. P2 00:02
    Penalty to Canadiens 2 minutes for Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Served by Arber Xhekaj)
  142. P2 00:00
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  143. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  144. P1 19:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Zachary Bolduc saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  145. P1 18:48
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
  146. P1 18:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  147. P1 17:49
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  148. P1 17:33
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
  149. P1 17:33
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  150. P1 17:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  151. P1 17:14
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  152. P1 16:13
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Kaiden Guhle in neutral zone
  153. P1 16:11
    Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  154. P1 16:11
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Lane Hutson assisted by Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield
    1-1
  155. P1 16:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  156. P1 15:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  157. P1 14:20
    Penalty to Jake Evans 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Jake Guentzel)
  158. P1 14:20
    Penalty to Alexandre Carrier 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Corey Perry)
  159. P1 14:20
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
  160. P1 13:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
  161. P1 13:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  162. P1 12:40
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  163. P1 12:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  164. P1 12:20
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  165. P1 11:58
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake Evans saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  166. P1 11:50
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  167. P1 11:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  168. P1 11:36
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  169. P1 11:36
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  170. P1 11:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
  171. P1 10:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  172. P1 10:11
    Penalty to Yanni Gourde 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Arber Xhekaj)
  173. P1 10:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  174. P1 10:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  175. P1 09:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  176. P1 08:39
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
    0-1
  177. P1 08:37
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  178. P1 08:25
    Stoppage - Icing
  179. P1 07:34
    SHOT
    Josh Anderson shot blocked by teammate
  180. P1 06:24
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in offensive zone
  181. P1 05:11
    SHOT
    Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  182. P1 04:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  183. P1 02:48
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
  184. P1 02:16
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  185. P1 02:16
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  186. P1 02:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  187. P1 01:32
    Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
  188. P1 01:32
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  189. P1 01:13
    Stoppage - Offside
  190. P1 01:09
    Takeaway by Jake Evans in neutral zone
  191. P1 00:34
    Jake Guentzel credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  192. P1 00:30
    Ryan McDonagh credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  193. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Canadiens
STATS
Lightning
27Shots on Goal34
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
25Penalty Infraction Mins27
43Hits34
25 Shots Blocked 15
21Giveaways15
CanadiensMTL
LightningTB
27Shots on Goal34
48% Faceoff Win % 52%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
25Penalty Infraction Mins27
43Hits34
25 Shots Blocked 15
21Giveaways15

Canadiens vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Canadiens vs. Lightning
  • Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Canadiens 37¢, Lightning 63¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Canadiens: 39%
  • Lightning: 61%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 39%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 61%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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