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Lightning vs. Oilers Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Oilers NHL game on March 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Lightning
5
2
Mar 22, 2AM Rogers Place
Oilers
Mar 22, 2AM Rogers Place
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 3 2 5
Oilers
1 0 1 2
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
LightningTB
Win %
100%
0%
OilersEDM
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 3 2 5
Oilers
1 0 1 2
P3 19:28 Shorthanded - Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli (Empty Net)
P3 18:56 Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 17:23 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 15:31 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 11:15 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Connor Ingram
P3 10:58 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 10:32 Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
P3 10:04 Ty Emberson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 09:44 Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Ingram
P3 08:19 Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 06:23 Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Roby Jarventie
P3 06:19 Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Adam Henrique
P3 03:54 Josh Samanski shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 03:21 Shot missed by Corey Perry
P3 03:05 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Connor Murphy
P3 02:22 Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Connor Ingram
P3 01:54 Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 00:53 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 00:52 Nick Paul shot blocked by Ty Emberson
P2 19:23 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Connor Ingram
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:28
Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Josh Samanski in neutral zone
P3 19:28
GOAL
Shorthanded - Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli (Empty Net)
5-2
P3 19:09
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
P3 18:58
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P3 18:56
SHOT
Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:00
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
P3 18:00
Stoppage - Offside
P3 17:23
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 15:50
Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P3 15:50
Stoppage - TV timeout
P3 15:32
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P3 15:31
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 13:58
Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
P3 13:40
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Josh Samanski in defensive zone
P3 13:40
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 11:50
Erik Cernak credited with hit on Zach Hyman in offensive zone
P3 11:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Connor Ingram
P3 10:58
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 10:32
SHOT
Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
P3 10:04
SHOT
Ty Emberson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 10:01
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 09:44
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Ingram
P3 09:25
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P3 09:25
Stoppage - Icing
P3 08:37
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
P3 08:37
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 08:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 07:43
Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P3 07:16
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
P3 06:23
SHOT
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Roby Jarventie
P3 06:19
SHOT
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Adam Henrique
P3 05:24
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
P3 03:54
SHOT
Josh Samanski shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 03:21
SHOT
Shot missed by Corey Perry
P3 03:05
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Connor Murphy
P3 02:22
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Connor Ingram
P3 01:54
SHOT
Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 01:52
Stoppage - Icing
P3 01:23
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 00:53
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 00:52
SHOT
Nick Paul shot blocked by Ty Emberson
P3 00:15
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Ty Emberson in defensive zone
P3 00:00
Josh Samanski won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Connor Ingram
P2 18:18
Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in defensive zone
P2 18:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 17:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 16:58
Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Adam Henrique in neutral zone
P2 16:13
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 16:04
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 15:34
Power play - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
P2 15:26
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Connor Ingram
P2 14:47
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
P2 14:44
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P2 12:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Mattias Ekholm
P2 12:21
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
P2 12:21
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P2 12:12
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point
1-1
P2 12:05
Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P2 12:03
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Connor Ingram
P2 11:03
Penalty to Vasily Podkolzin 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Anthony Cirelli)
P2 11:03
Penalty to Vasily Podkolzin 2 minutes for Misconduct
P2 10:29
Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
P2 10:29
Penalty to Connor Murphy 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Pontus Holmberg)
P2 10:29
Penalty to Pontus Holmberg 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Connor Murphy)
P2 09:23
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Roby Jarventie
P2 08:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P2 07:30
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Connor Murphy
P2 07:29
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Connor Murphy
P2 06:03
Nick Paul won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
P2 05:28
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McDavid in offensive zone
P2 05:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Connor Ingram
P2 05:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jason Dickinson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 04:45
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 04:24
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Jason Dickinson in offensive zone
P2 04:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P2 01:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Connor Ingram
P2 01:33
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
P2 01:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Connor Ingram
P2 00:11
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Josh Samanski in defensive zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:38
Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P1 19:34
SHOT
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P1 19:33
Stoppage - Icing
P1 18:23
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P1 16:52
SHOT
Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Josh Samanski
P1 16:43
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P1 16:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P1 15:24
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P1 14:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ty Emberson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 14:31
Adam Henrique won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
P1 14:16
Brayden Point won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
P1 14:16
Stoppage - Icing
P1 13:47
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
P1 13:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 13:34
Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P1 13:10
SHOT
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Connor McDavid
P1 11:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Point
P1 10:53
Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P1 10:50
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Walman
P1 09:58
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Connor Murphy
P1 09:14
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P1 09:10
Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P1 09:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Walman
P1 08:24
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
P1 08:24
Stoppage - Icing
P1 07:29
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 06:44
Giveaway by Connor McDavid in offensive zone
P1 06:21
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P1 06:19
Brayden Point won faceoff against Connor McDavid in offensive zone
P1 06:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Connor Ingram
P1 05:24
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Ty Emberson in offensive zone
P1 05:14
Stoppage - Offside
P1 04:47
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P1 04:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Connor Ingram
P1 03:02
SHOT
Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P1 02:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Connor Ingram
P1 02:09
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 01:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 00:59
Kasperi Kapanen credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
P1 00:00
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Josh Samanski in neutral zone
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Oilers
27Shots on Goal27
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
18Penalty Infraction Mins18
11Hits28
13Shots Blocked16
19Giveaways18
LightningTB
OilersEDM
27Shots on Goal27
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
18Penalty Infraction Mins18
11Hits28
13Shots Blocked16
19Giveaways18

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Lightning vs. Oilers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Oilers
  • Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Rogers Place

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -130, Oilers +120

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 54%
  • Oilers: 46%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 54%, while the Oilers have a win probability of 46%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Oilers in the NHL game at Rogers Place on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Oilers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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