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Capitals vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Capitals vs. Sabres NHL game on March 12, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Capitals
2
1
Mar 12, 11PM KeyBank Center
Sabres
Mar 12, 11PM KeyBank Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Capitals
0 1 1 2
Sabres
1 0 0 1
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
CapitalsWSH
Win %
100%
0%
SabresBUF
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Capitals
0 1 1 2
Sabres
1 0 0 1
P3 18:55 Tage Thompson shot blocked by Matt Roy
P3 18:44 Tom Wilson shot blocked by Bowen Byram
P3 18:25 Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun
P3 18:19 Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by teammate
P3 14:50 Shot missed by Logan Stanley
P3 14:09 Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Tage Thompson
P3 13:11 Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
P3 11:42 Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
P3 11:29 Shot missed by Tage Thompson
P3 11:08 Tage Thompson shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
P3 10:59 Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
P3 09:31 Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by teammate
P3 08:59 Shot missed by Tage Thompson
P3 07:39 Shorthanded - Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
P3 05:12 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 04:46 Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 03:20 Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 02:33 Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 01:51 Shot missed by Bowen Byram
P3 01:08 Zach Benson shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:16
Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
P3 18:55
SHOT
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Matt Roy
P3 18:44
SHOT
Tom Wilson shot blocked by Bowen Byram
P3 18:25
GOAL
Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun
2-1
P3 18:19
SHOT
Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:00
Connor McMichael credited with hit on Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
P3 16:00
Stoppage - Icing
P3 15:41
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
P3 15:41
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 15:13
Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P3 14:50
SHOT
Shot missed by Logan Stanley
P3 14:09
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Tage Thompson
P3 14:05
Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P3 13:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
P3 12:32
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P3 12:32
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
P3 12:05
Sam Carrick won faceoff against Pierre-Luc Dubois in defensive zone
P3 11:42
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
P3 11:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Tage Thompson
P3 11:08
SHOT
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
P3 10:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
P3 09:40
Takeaway by Timothy Liljegren in defensive zone
P3 09:31
SHOT
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by teammate
P3 09:28
Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in offensive zone
P3 08:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Tage Thompson
P3 08:07
Shorthanded - Tage Thompson won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
P3 08:07
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 07:49
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 07:39
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
P3 07:07
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 06:08
Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P3 05:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 04:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 03:20
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 03:00
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 02:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 01:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Bowen Byram
P3 01:08
SHOT
Zach Benson shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
P3 00:30
Jack Quinn credited with hit on Rasmus Sandin in offensive zone
P3 00:22
Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin in neutral zone
P3 00:19
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
P3 00:00
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:49
Takeaway by Dylan Strome in neutral zone
P2 19:11
SHOT
Owen Power shot blocked by Matt Roy
P2 19:05
SHOT
Shot missed by Zach Benson
P2 18:39
Power play - Giveaway by Noah Ostlund in offensive zone
P2 17:22
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Charlie Lindgren
P2 17:14
SHOT
Power play - Josh Norris shot blocked by Matt Roy
P2 16:41
Stoppage - TV timeout
P2 16:41
Penalty to Martin Fehervary 2 minutes for Misconduct
P2 16:39
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Charlie Lindgren
P2 15:30
SHOT
Shot on goal by Logan Stanley saved by Charlie Lindgren
P2 14:24
Shorthanded - Sam Carrick won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
P2 14:22
SHOT
Power play - Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Luke Schenn
P2 13:32
SHOT
Power play - Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Ryan McLeod
P2 12:51
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
P2 12:43
SHOT
Shot missed by Tanner Pearson
P2 11:28
Giveaway by Trevor van Riemsdyk in defensive zone
P2 09:58
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
P2 09:20
Takeaway by Timothy Liljegren in defensive zone
P2 08:54
Mattias Samuelsson credited with hit on Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
P2 08:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Trevor van Riemsdyk saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P2 08:29
SHOT
Shot on goal by Sam Carrick saved by Charlie Lindgren
P2 08:25
Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P2 08:15
Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
P2 08:15
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 07:45
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in offensive zone
P2 07:45
Stoppage - Icing
P2 06:59
Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
P2 06:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Charlie Lindgren
P2 06:00
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Jason Zucker in defensive zone
P2 06:00
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 05:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
P2 05:07
Josh Norris won faceoff against Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
P2 04:32
SHOT
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Peyton Krebs
P2 04:26
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 04:11
Giveaway by Trevor van Riemsdyk in offensive zone
P2 03:20
Takeaway by Bowen Byram in offensive zone
P2 03:17
Stoppage - Icing
P2 02:52
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
P2 02:52
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 02:47
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
P2 02:44
SHOT
Sam Carrick shot blocked by Justin Sourdif
P2 02:14
Sam Carrick won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
P2 02:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
P2 01:54
Josh Norris won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
P2 01:22
Hendrix Lapierre credited with hit on Bowen Byram in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:17
SHOT
Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
P1 19:13
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Charlie Lindgren
P1 19:03
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Charlie Lindgren
P1 18:17
Shorthanded - Giveaway by Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
P1 17:50
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Tom Wilson in offensive zone
P1 16:40
SHOT
Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Luke Schenn
P1 15:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Charlie Lindgren
P1 15:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Jack Quinn
P1 14:35
Stoppage - Icing
P1 14:13
Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Sam Carrick in offensive zone
P1 14:08
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor McMichael
P1 12:40
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
P1 12:12
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 11:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Charlie Lindgren
P1 11:14
Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P1 10:15
SHOT
Shot missed by Jack Quinn
P1 09:55
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
P1 09:52
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P1 08:41
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Beck Malenstyn in defensive zone
P1 08:41
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 07:38
SHOT
Owen Power shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
P1 07:36
Josh Norris won faceoff against Pierre-Luc Dubois in offensive zone
P1 07:36
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 06:02
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in neutral zone
P1 05:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P1 05:31
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 05:10
Giveaway by Josh Doan in offensive zone
P1 04:23
Connor McMichael credited with hit on Luke Schenn in offensive zone
P1 03:32
Brandon Duhaime credited with hit on Bowen Byram in defensive zone
P1 03:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Charlie Lindgren
P1 03:13
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 02:56
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tanner Pearson saved by Charlie Lindgren
P1 02:11
Peyton Krebs credited with hit on Aliaksei Protas in offensive zone
P1 01:57
Giveaway by Charlie Lindgren in defensive zone
P1 00:58
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 00:30
SHOT
Matt Roy shot blocked by Jason Zucker
P1 00:28
SHOT
Brandon Duhaime shot blocked by Jack Quinn
P1 00:11
Jason Zucker credited with hit on Matt Roy in offensive zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Capitals
STATS
Sabres
22Shots on Goal30
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
22Hits24
17Shots Blocked12
17Giveaways13
CapitalsWSH
SabresBUF
22Shots on Goal30
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
22Hits24
17Shots Blocked12
17Giveaways13

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Capitals vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Capitals vs. Sabres
  • Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Sabres favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Capitals +180, Sabres -194

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Capitals: 38%
  • Sabres: 62%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Capitals a win probability of 38%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 62%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Sabres are more likely to beat the Capitals in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Capitals vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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