Bets 
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Game 4 of 2026 Finals
NBA
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Spurs NBA game on May 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
91
118
May 29, 12:30AM Frost Bank Center
May 29, 12:30AM Frost Bank Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Bets
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 22 | 31 | 13 | 25 | 91 |
Spurs | 35 | 25 | 32 | 26 | 118 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 22 | 31 | 13 | 25 | 91 |
Spurs | 35 | 25 | 32 | 26 | 118 |
Q4 00:32 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:41 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:54 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:58 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:10 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:32 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:40 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:54 Thunder makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:20 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:36 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Instant replay
Instant replay
Instant replay
Instant replay
Spurs turnover
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
91-118
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
91-116
Spurs turnover
Thunder turnover
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Kelly Olynyk makes regular free throw 2 of 2
88-116
Spurs defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Kelly Olynyk makes regular free throw 1 of 2
88-116
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
88-114
Thunder personal foul
+1
Kelly Olynyk makes regular free throw 1 of 1
88-115
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
88-112
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
88-110
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
86-110
Spurs turnover
Thunder 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo, Lindy Waters III, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan McLaughlin)
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
+1
Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
83-110
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Nikola Topic)
Spurs lineup change (Carter Bryant, Bismack Biyombo, Lindy Waters III, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan McLaughlin)
+1
Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
84-110
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
82-110
Spurs offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Nikola Topic)
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, Lindy Waters III, Harrison Barnes, Jordan McLaughlin)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
82-108
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
82-106
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Luke Kornet misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, Harrison Barnes, Jordan McLaughlin)
+1
Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 2 of 2
79-106
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
79-104
Thunder personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
79-105
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, Harrison Barnes)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
79-102
Jared McCain defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
77-102
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
74-102
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
74-100
Spurs personal foul
+1
Jared McCain makes regular free throw 1 of 2
73-97
+1
Jared McCain makes regular free throw 2 of 2
74-97
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
72-97
Thunder turnover
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
71-95
Spurs personal foul
Spurs 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Spurs challenge timeout
Spurs 60 second timeout
+1
Jared McCain makes regular free throw 1 of 1
72-95
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
69-95
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
69-92
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams)
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
66-92
Thunder personal foul
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
64-91
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
64-92
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox)
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses two point jump shot
Spurs misses three point jump shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
64-89
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
64-90
Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Thunder personal foul
De'Aaron Fox misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
64-88
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Thunder turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
64-87
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams)
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
64-85
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Thunder turnover
Thunder personal foul
+1
Dylan Harper makes regular free throw 1 of 2
64-82
+1
Dylan Harper makes regular free throw 2 of 2
64-83
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Dylan Harper makes regular free throw 1 of 2
64-80
+1
Dylan Harper makes regular free throw 2 of 2
64-81
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Spurs personal foul
Thunder violation
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein)
Spurs personal foul
Spurs 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs challenge timeout
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
64-79
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
64-76
Thunder personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
64-77
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
Spurs lineup change (Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein)
Spurs personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
Spurs lineup change (Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie)
De'Aaron Fox turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
64-74
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Isaiah Hartenstein misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
64-72
Spurs turnover
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
62-71
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
62-72
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
62-70
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
60-70
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
60-66
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
60-67
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
+2
Isaiah Hartenstein makes two point tip layup
60-65
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
58-65
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
57-63
Spurs personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
58-63
Victor Wembanyama defensive goaltending violation
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
55-63
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
53-63
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
53-60
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
53-58
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
48-58
Spurs personal foul
Instant replay
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
49-58
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
50-58
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
48-55
Spurs personal foul
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
46-55
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
43-55
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Carter Bryant, De'Aaron Fox)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams)
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
43-53
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
41-53
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
41-51
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams)
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
41-49
Thunder personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Carter Bryant, De'Aaron Fox)
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
41-47
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
38-47
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
38-44
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
36-44
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
33-44
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
33-42
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
31-42
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
29-42
Thunder personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
29-39
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Spurs turnover
Stephon Castle misses two point layup
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
27-38
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
27-39
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes, Julian Champagnie)
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace turnover (bad pass)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
27-37
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
24-37
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
22-37
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
22-35
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
22-33
Jump ball. (Julian Champagnie gains possession)
Thunder turnover
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
22-30
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
20-30
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
20-28
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
18-28
Spurs offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Spurs 60 second timeout
Jalen Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
18-26
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
17-26
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
17-23
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
15-23
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein)
Spurs lineup change (Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, De'Aaron Fox)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
15-20
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
14-17
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
15-17
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
13-17
Thunder turnover
Spurs lineup change (Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson)
Stoppage (Other)
Instant replay
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
14-14
Spurs turnover
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
12-14
Instant replay
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
9-14
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
Thunder turnover
Victor Wembanyama misses two point driving layup
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Jared McCain defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
9-13
Spurs personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson)
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
7-13
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
De'Aaron Fox offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
7-11
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
5-11
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
5-9
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
2-9
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
2-6
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
2-3
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
0-3
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie)
Chet Holmgren (Stephon Castle gains possession)
Start of 1st Quarter
Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
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Thunder vs. Spurs: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Spurs
- Date: Thursday, May 28, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Spurs favored at -3.5
- Total (Over/Under): 218.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder +147, Spurs -141
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 37%
- Spurs: 63%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 108-111 Spurs.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 37%, while the Spurs have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Thunder in the NBA game at Frost Bank Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Spurs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
