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NBA
Heat vs. Pacers Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Pacers NBA game on March 29, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
118
135
Mar 29, 5:00 PM ET Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Mar 29, 5:00 PM ET Gainbridge Fieldhouse
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Pro Bets
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 36 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 118 |
Pacers | 34 | 45 | 29 | 27 | 135 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Heat
- Pacers
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 36 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 118 |
Pacers | 34 | 45 | 29 | 27 | 135 |
Q4 00:14 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:22 Pacers makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:00 Pacers misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:17 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:24 Pacers misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:45 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:04 Pacers makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:28 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:36 Pacers makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:50 Heat makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
118-135
Heat violation
Pacers personal foul
Davion Mitchell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Davion Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
118-133
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pacers defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Jay Huff defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
117-133
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
117-130
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
117-128
Heat personal foul
+1
Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 1 of 2
115-127
+1
Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 2 of 2
115-128
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
115-126
Heat personal foul
Heat personal foul
+1
Andrew Nembhard makes technical free throw 1 of 1
115-124
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat personal foul
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, Jay Huff, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Andrew Nembhard misses three point pullup jump shot
Jay Huff defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Pacers lineup change (Jalen Slawson, Kobe Brown, Jay Huff, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
115-123
Pacers defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
115-121
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
113-121
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pascal Siakam offensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 1 of 2
113-118
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Jay Huff, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
+1
Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 2 of 2
113-119
Jay Huff defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
113-117
T.J. McConnell defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
113-115
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
111-115
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, T.J. McConnell, Jay Huff, Ben Sheppard)
Jay Huff defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
111-113
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
111-110
Pacers turnover
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
109-110
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pascal Siakam offensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
107-110
Heat turnover
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Jay Huff, Ben Sheppard)
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
107-108
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
107-105
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
104-105
T.J. McConnell defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
104-103
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
102-103
Jay Huff defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
102-100
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
102-98
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
100-98
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
100-96
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
97-96
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
94-96
Heat personal foul
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pacers personal foul
Pacers lineup change (Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Jay Huff, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
Pacers personal foul
Andrew Nembhard turnover (offensive foul)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Micah Potter defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Obi Toppin defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
94-94
Pacers offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
94-92
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
92-92
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
92-90
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
90-90
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Pacers 60 second timeout
Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
90-88
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
90-86
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
87-86
Pacers 60 second timeout
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
87-84
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
84-84
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
84-81
Heat offensive rebound
Pacers personal foul
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
82-81
Pacers turnover
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pacers personal foul
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
79-81
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
77-81
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
77-79
Pacers personal foul
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)
75-79
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
72-79
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Andrew Nembhard)
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
72-76
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
70-76
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
70-74
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
68-74
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pacers 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
66-74
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Micah Potter defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
64-74
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
64-72
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
62-72
Ben Sheppard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
62-69
Heat personal foul
Pascal Siakam misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Pacers personal foul
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 2
61-67
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 2
62-67
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
Pacers turnover
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Micah Potter makes regular free throw 1 of 2
60-66
+1
Micah Potter makes regular free throw 2 of 2
60-67
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Pacers personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
60-65
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
59-65
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
59-63
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
57-63
Heat turnover
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
57-61
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
57-59
Pacers turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
55-59
Heat 60 second timeout
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Micah Potter, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
52-59
Pacers turnover
Heat turnover
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
52-56
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
52-53
Heat violation
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo)
Heat turnover
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
50-52
Heat personal foul
+1
Obi Toppin makes regular free throw 1 of 1
50-53
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
50-50
Pacers 60 second timeout
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Heat defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Pascal Siakam, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin)
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
48-50
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
46-50
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
45-48
Pacers personal foul
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 1
46-48
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
43-48
Heat personal foul
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pacers defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
43-46
Obi Toppin defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Pacers personal foul
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
42-43
Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin)
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
43-43
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
41-43
Pacers personal foul
Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
41-40
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pacers turnover
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
40-40
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
40-37
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
38-36
Heat personal foul
+1
Kobe Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 1
38-37
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
38-34
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
36-34
Instant replay
End of 1st Quarter.
Pacers lineup change (Pascal Siakam, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard)
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
33-33
Heat personal foul
+1
T.J. McConnell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
33-34
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
33-31
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Pacers turnover
Jump ball. (Quenton Jackson gains possession)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover (lost ball)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard)
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
31-31
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
31-29
Tyler Herro offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
29-29
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
26-29
Micah Potter defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
26-27
Micah Potter defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Micah Potter defensive rebound
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Pacers personal foul
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 2
26-24
Simone Fontecchio misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
25-24
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
25-21
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
22-21
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
22-18
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
22-15
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
20-15
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
20-13
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
17-13
Pacers personal foul
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
16-10
Pacers lineup change (Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard)
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
17-10
+3
Pacers makes three point jump shot
15-10
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
15-7
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
13-7
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pacers turnover
Heat personal foul
Pacers 60 second timeout
Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Micah Potter, Kobe Brown, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
13-5
Pacers turnover
Heat personal foul
Pelle Larsson turnover (offensive foul)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
11-5
Pacers personal foul
Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 1
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
9-5
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
9-3
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Pacers misses two point jump shot
Pacers personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
6-3
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
7-3
Pacers lineup change (Ethan Thompson, Micah Potter, Jalen Slawson, Quenton Jackson, Andrew Nembhard)
Pacers turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
5-3
Pacers personal foul
Pacers personal foul
Pascal Siakam turnover (offensive foul)
Heat personal foul
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
2-3
Pacers turnover
Heat turnover
Heat personal foul
Pascal Siakam misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Pacers offensive rebound
+1
Pascal Siakam makes regular free throw 2 of 2
0-3
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pacers makes two point jump shot
0-2
Ethan Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pacers misses three point jump shot
Jalen Slawson (Quenton Jackson gains possession)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
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Heat vs. Pacers: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Pacers
- Date: Sunday, March 29, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Heat favored at -8.5
- Total (Over/Under): 258.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat -326, Pacers +342
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 74%
- Pacers: 26%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 126-118 Pacers.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 74%, while the Pacers have a win probability of 26%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Heat are more likely to beat the Pacers in the NBA game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Pacers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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