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Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA game on March 23, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
137
131
Mar 24, 1:30AM American Airlines Center
Mar 24, 1:30AM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warriors | 34 | 57 | 0 | 46 | 137 |
Mavericks | 31 | 60 | 0 | 40 | 131 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warriors | 34 | 57 | 0 | 46 | 137 |
Mavericks | 31 | 60 | 0 | 40 | 131 |
OT1 00:26 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
OT1 00:33 Kristaps Porzingis misses two point jump shot
OT1 1:01 Max Christie misses three point jump shot
OT1 1:09 Warriors misses two point jump shot
OT1 1:49 Mavericks makes three point jump shot
OT1 2:00 Klay Thompson blocks Moses Moody's three point jump shot
OT1 2:20 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
OT1 2:31 Gary Payton II makes two point jump shot
OT1 2:52 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
OT1 3:08 Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 1st OT.
Mavericks turnover
Mavericks personal foul
Draymond Green misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Draymond Green makes regular free throw 2 of 2
137-131
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Gary Payton II)
Kristaps Porzingis misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors defensive rebound
Warriors 60 second timeout
Max Christie misses three point jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Klay Thompson shooting foul (Gui Santos draws the foul)
Gui Santos misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 2 of 2
137-131
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
137-131
Klay Thompson blocks Moses Moody's three point jump shot
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody)
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Gary Payton II makes two point jump shot
135-128
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
137-131
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Gui Santos personal foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 2 of 2
135-131
Cooper Flagg shooting foul (Gui Santos draws the foul)
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 1 of 2
137-131
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
Cooper Flagg personal foul (Moses Moody draws the foul)
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Moses Moody defensive rebound
+3
Moses Moody makes three point jump shot
126-126
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
LJ Cryer defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 1 of 2
135-131
+1
Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 2
137-131
Instant replay
Mavericks lineup change (Marvin Bagley III, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington)
(Brandin Podziemski gains possession)
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Moses Moody)
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Kristaps Porzingis, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
End of 4th Quarter.
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, P.J. Washington)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Jump ball. P.J. Washington (Klay Thompson gains possession)
Draymond Green turnover (lost ball) (P.J. Washington steals)
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Draymond Green offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Gui Santos offensive rebound
Kristaps Porzingis misses two point layup
Draymond Green offensive rebound
Moses Moody misses three point pullup jump shot
Naji Marshall turnover (traveling)
Draymond Green turnover
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot
135-131
Mavericks personal foul
Kristaps Porzingis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Kristaps Porzingis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
135-131
Warriors offensive rebound
Draymond Green personal foul
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-114
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2
136-131
Kristaps Porzingis turnover (offensive foul)
Kristaps Porzingis offensive foul (Off the ball) (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
Stoppage (Injury)
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, P.J. Washington)
Mavericks turnover
Moses Moody misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Moses Moody makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-114
Daniel Gafford personal foul (Moses Moody draws the foul)
Warriors offensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
122-114
Gui Santos offensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
126-126
Kristaps Porzingis misses two point jump shot
Kristaps Porzingis offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
+2
Max Christie makes two point running layup
122-114
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody)
Warriors 60 second timeout
Pat Spencer turnover (Naji Marshall steals)
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
122-114
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
+2
Kristaps Porzingis makes two point driving bank jump shot (Gary Payton II assists)
122-114
Kristaps Porzingis defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
LJ Cryer personal foul
Brandin Podziemski turnover (bad pass) (Naji Marshall steals)
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point jump shot
120-114
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
Gary Payton II defensive rebound
Gary Payton II personal foul
Daniel Gafford misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Daniel Gafford misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford)
Max Christie defensive rebound
Mavericks personal foul
+2
Gary Payton II makes two point reverse layup (De'Anthony Melton assists)
135-131
Gary Payton II misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Brandin Podziemski, Kristaps Porzingis, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses two point pullup jump shot
+3
Gary Payton II makes three point jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)
126-126
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving finger roll layup
120-114
De'Anthony Melton turnover
Cooper Flagg personal foul (Kristaps Porzingis draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford)
Warriors offensive rebound
De'Anthony Melton misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Kristaps Porzingis, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton)
De'Anthony Melton offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
122-114
+2
Draymond Green makes two point layup (Gui Santos assists)
122-114
Gui Santos offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover (shot clock violation)
Mavericks lineup change (Marvin Bagley III, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Max Christie)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
113-108
Mavericks turnover (Gary Payton II steals)
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
111-108
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Draymond Green misses three point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski misses two point tip layup
Mavericks defensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, De'Anthony Melton)
Warriors 60 second timeout
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
122-114
Moses Moody personal foul (Daniel Gafford draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (John Poulakidas, Marvin Bagley III, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson)
Mavericks defensive rebound
LJ Cryer misses three point jump shot
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Warriors turnover
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving floating jump shot
122-114
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
136-131
+3
Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
91-91
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (John Poulakidas, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Daniel Gafford)
LJ Cryer offensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
LJ Cryer misses two point running layup
+2
LJ Cryer makes two point tip layup
122-114
Cooper Flagg turnover (Moses Moody steals)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
91-91
Khris Middleton personal foul
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 1 of 1
136-131
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
Khris Middleton misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Warriors turnover
+3
LJ Cryer makes three point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
122-114
Cooper Flagg turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-114
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 1 of 1
122-114
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Pat Spencer, Moses Moody)
End of 3rd Quarter.
Mavericks lineup change (John Poulakidas, Khris Middleton, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Daniel Gafford)
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses two point jump shot
+2
Gary Payton II makes two point jump shot
91-91
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
91-91
Tyler Smith shooting foul (Kristaps Porzingis draws the foul)
+2
Kristaps Porzingis makes two point jump shot
91-91
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis, Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
+1
Kristaps Porzingis makes regular free throw 1 of 1
126-126
+3
Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot
91-91
+2
Brandin Podziemski makes two point driving layup
91-91
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
91-91
+2
Gui Santos makes two point jump shot (Kristaps Porzingis assists)
91-91
Daniel Gafford violation
Khris Middleton turnover (Kristaps Porzingis steals)
Khris Middleton offensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
+3
Will Richard makes three point jump shot (Kristaps Porzingis assists)
91-91
Ryan Nembhard turnover (bad pass) (Gui Santos steals)
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
Daniel Gafford personal foul (Brandin Podziemski draws the foul)
Warriors 60 second timeout
Klay Thompson turnover (Gui Santos steals)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
137-131
Khris Middleton defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors offensive rebound
Tyler Smith kicked ball violation
Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point jump shot
126-126
+2
Kristaps Porzingis makes two point pullup jump shot
86-91
Mavericks lineup change (Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Tyler Smith, Daniel Gafford)
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Kristaps Porzingis, Gary Payton II)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
LJ Cryer defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
126-126
LJ Cryer defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-114
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
78-86
Gary Payton II shooting foul (Marvin Bagley III draws the foul)
+2
Marvin Bagley III makes two point jump shot
122-114
+1
Marvin Bagley III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
122-114
Draymond Green turnover (Cooper Flagg steals)
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gary Payton II)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Marvin Bagley III turnover
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot
122-114
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors violation
LJ Cryer personal foul (Max Christie draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Ryan Nembhard, Marvin Bagley III, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington)
Marvin Bagley III personal foul
Gui Santos misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-126
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Gui Santos personal foul
Mavericks offensive rebound
De'Anthony Melton turnover (Daniel Gafford steals)
De'Anthony Melton personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Marvin Bagley III, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington)
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton)
Mavericks lineup change (Marvin Bagley III, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington)
Gui Santos offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot
91-91
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Draymond Green turnover (offensive foul)
Draymond Green offensive foul (Charge) (Daniel Gafford draws the foul)
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton)
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton)
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot
113-108
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
91-91
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
113-108
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
113-108
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot (Daniel Gafford assists)
91-91
Cooper Flagg violation
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
113-108
Warriors offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
+2
Kristaps Porzingis makes two point driving floating jump shot (De'Anthony Melton assists)
91-91
De'Anthony Melton offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Daniel Gafford blocks Brandin Podziemski's two point driving layup
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Moses Moody blocks Mavericks's two point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
63-69
Kristaps Porzingis offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Moses Moody offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
113-108
Mavericks turnover
Warriors turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point jump shot
63-69
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
91-91
End of 1st Half.
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton)
Warriors turnover
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Gary Payton II)
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, P.J. Washington)
Draymond Green shooting foul (Daniel Gafford draws the foul)
Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
+1
Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-91
+1
Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-91
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody)
Cooper Flagg misses three point jump shot
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
+2
Draymond Green makes two point cutting layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)
63-69
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
Naji Marshall turnover
+2
Moses Moody makes two point driving layup
61-69
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2
59-68
Moses Moody personal foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-91
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Moses Moody makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-67
Warriors lineup change (LJ Cryer, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Moses Moody)
+1
Moses Moody makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-91
Naji Marshall turnover (lost ball) (Brandin Podziemski steals)
Cooper Flagg personal foul (Loose ball) (Kristaps Porzingis draws the foul)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Kristaps Porzingis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-91
+1
Kristaps Porzingis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-91
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Gui Santos personal foul (P.J. Washington draws the foul)
P.J. Washington misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Mavericks offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody)
P.J. Washington misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
91-91
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
91-91
Kristaps Porzingis turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Kristaps Porzingis defensive rebound
+1
Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 1 of 2
52-62
Warriors personal foul
Mavericks defensive rebound
Daniel Gafford misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
+2
Daniel Gafford makes two point jump shot
91-91
Warriors turnover
Warriors 60 second timeout
+2
P.J. Washington makes two point layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)
52-62
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Kristaps Porzingis, Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II)
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford)
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis, Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, De'Anthony Melton)
Mavericks lineup change (John Poulakidas, Marvin Bagley III, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, P.J. Washington)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 7 | K. Porzingis | 22 | 7 | 5 |
| G | 2 | B. Podziemski | 20 | 10 | 6 |
| F | 15 | G. Santos | 16 | 6 | 5 |
| F | 23 | D. Green | 11 | 7 | 6 |
| G | 0 | G. Payton II | 17 | 4 | 3 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 25 | P. Washington | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| G | 31 | K. Thompson | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| G | 0 | M. Christie | 15 | 2 | 1 |
| F | 32 | C. Flagg | 32 | 4 | 9 |
| G | 13 | N. Marshall | 16 | 6 | 7 |
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Warriors vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Warriors vs. Mavericks
- Date: Monday, March 23, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Warriors favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 229.5
- Moneyline Odds: Warriors -113, Mavericks +120
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Warriors: 60%
- Mavericks: 40%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Warriors 117-114 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Warriors a win probability of 60%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 40%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Warriors are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Warriors vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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