...
...
Read Article
Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Nuggets vs. Spurs NBA game on March 12, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Start your FREE 3-Day trial of Dimers Pro 
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
136
131
Mar 13, 1AM Frost Bank Center
Mar 13, 1AM Frost Bank Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 25 | 28 | 41 | 42 | 136 |
Spurs | 37 | 32 | 37 | 25 | 131 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
99%
1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 25 | 28 | 41 | 42 | 136 |
Spurs | 37 | 32 | 37 | 25 | 131 |
Q4 1:36 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:55 Stephon Castle makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:02 Cameron Johnson makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
Q4 3:21 De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:27 Jamal Murray misses three point running jump shot
Q4 3:43 Jamal Murray makes two point pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
Q4 4:54 Nikola Jokic blocks Keldon Johnson's two point driving layup
Q4 5:17 Keldon Johnson misses two point tip layup
Q4 5:23 Dylan Harper misses two point turnaround jump shot
Q4 6:11 Spurs makes three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Carter Bryant personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
135-131
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
136-131
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Carter Bryant, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell)
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones)
Spurs personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
Luke Kornet personal foul (Christian Braun draws the foul)
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+3
Stephon Castle makes three point jump shot
134-131
De'Aaron Fox personal foul
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs 60 second timeout
+3
Cameron Johnson makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
128-119
Christian Braun defensive rebound
De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
Jamal Murray misses three point running jump shot
Devin Vassell turnover (lost ball) (Nikola Jokic steals)
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
128-119
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Nikola Jokic blocks Keldon Johnson's two point driving layup
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point tip layup
Dylan Harper misses two point turnaround jump shot
Dylan Harper personal foul
Spurs personal foul
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
116-119
+2
Cameron Johnson makes two point driving finger roll layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
134-131
Spencer Jones misses three point running jump shot
Keldon Johnson turnover (lost ball) (Nikola Jokic steals)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Spencer Jones makes two point jump shot
134-131
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
112-113
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point jump shot
108-113
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, De'Aaron Fox)
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Nikola Jokic)
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point jump shot
128-119
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
134-131
Harrison Barnes turnover (bad pass) (Christian Braun steals)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell)
+3
Spencer Jones makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
136-131
Stephon Castle misses two point jump shot
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
+2
Spencer Jones makes two point jump shot (Julian Strawther assists)
134-131
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Devin Vassell misses two point pullup jump shot
+3
Jamal Murray makes three point jump shot (Spencer Jones assists)
134-131
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
134-131
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
136-131
+3
Spencer Jones makes three point jump shot
134-131
Mason Plumlee offensive rebound
De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Mason Plumlee, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell)
Stephon Castle misses three point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
128-119
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Nikola Jokic)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
128-119
Nikola Jokic blocks Harrison Barnes's two point jump shot
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
128-119
Nikola Jokic personal foul (Harrison Barnes draws the foul)
+1
Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 2 of 2
128-119
Spurs violation
+1
Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 1 of 2
128-119
+2
Cameron Johnson makes two point running dunk (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)
128-119
Spurs turnover
De'Aaron Fox personal foul
+1
Bruce Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Carter Bryant, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox)
+2
Dylan Harper makes two point running finger roll layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)
133-129
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
133-129
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point running finger roll layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
82-97
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
82-97
+3
De'Aaron Fox makes three point jump shot
82-97
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
82-94
Carter Bryant personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
82-97
Nuggets defensive rebound
Bruce Brown shooting foul (De'Aaron Fox draws the foul)
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
De'Aaron Fox misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic)
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
82-97
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson blocks Bruce Brown's two point cutting layup
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
82-97
Nikola Jokic turnover (offensive foul)
+1
Harrison Barnes makes technical free throw 1 of 1
82-97
Nikola Jokic personal foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Nuggets personal foul
Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
Spurs lineup change (Carter Bryant, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, De'Aaron Fox)
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
Nuggets lineup change (Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Spencer Jones, Nikola Jokic)
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Carter Bryant, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Jamal Murray misses two point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
133-129
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
133-129
Nuggets 60 second timeout
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point driving layup
76-83
Nuggets personal foul
Tim Hardaway Jr. turnover (offensive foul)
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Devin Vassell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
+1
Devin Vassell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
133-129
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Nikola Jokic)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
133-129
Spurs personal foul
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
133-129
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Dylan Harper makes two point turnaround jump shot
133-129
Nuggets personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell)
+2
Christian Braun makes two point jump shot
58-71
Spurs violation
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Julian Champagnie misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Spurs personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
133-129
+3
Stephon Castle makes three point jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)
82-97
Mitch Johnson technical foul
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
+1
Jamal Murray makes technical free throw 1 of 1
82-97
Spurs personal foul
Christian Braun misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Cameron Johnson makes two point driving finger roll layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
82-97
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
Devin Vassell misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
82-97
Cameron Johnson offensive rebound
Nikola Jokic misses three point pullup jump shot
+3
Devin Vassell makes three point jump shot
58-71
Spurs 60 second timeout
+3
Nikola Jokic makes three point jump shot (Cameron Johnson assists)
58-71
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Stephon Castle misses two point jump shot
Spencer Jones kicked ball violation
Christian Braun turnover (lost ball) (De'Aaron Fox steals)
De'Aaron Fox personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+1
Christian Braun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-71
Julian Champagnie shooting foul (Christian Braun draws the foul)
+1
Christian Braun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
133-129
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
133-129
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
58-71
Luke Kornet personal foul
+1
Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 1 of 1
133-129
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point stepback jump shot
56-71
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Christian Braun misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
55-69
Luke Kornet shooting foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 1
58-71
End of 1st Half.
Spurs offensive rebound
De'Aaron Fox misses heave shot
Nuggets lineup change (Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Nikola Jokic)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell)
Jamal Murray turnover
Harrison Barnes misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. personal foul (Harrison Barnes draws the foul)
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 2 of 2
133-129
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Nikola Jokic)
Tim Hardaway Jr. turnover
+2
Julian Champagnie makes two point jump shot
58-71
Nuggets turnover
+3
Stephon Castle makes three point jump shot
53-66
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
58-71
+3
Julian Champagnie makes three point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
82-97
Devin Vassell personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-71
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
82-97
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell)
Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Spencer Jones makes two point jump shot
49-60
De'Aaron Fox personal foul (Spencer Jones draws the foul)
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point driving layup
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
133-129
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Luke Kornet blocks Spencer Jones's two point running layup
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point jump shot
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
+2
Spencer Jones makes two point tip layup
108-113
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Christian Braun misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Nikola Jokic misses two point driving floating jump shot
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
49-60
Christian Braun shooting foul (De'Aaron Fox draws the foul)
De'Aaron Fox misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
53-69
Christian Braun defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Keldon Johnson shooting foul (Christian Braun draws the foul)
Christian Braun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Nikola Jokic)
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell)
Nuggets offensive rebound
+1
Christian Braun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
133-129
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
133-129
+3
Julian Strawther makes three point jump shot
53-69
Christian Braun shooting foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
29-45
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point jump shot
53-69
Spurs offensive rebound
Devin Vassell misses two point running layup
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell)
Nikola Jokic turnover
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Julian Champagnie misses two point pullup jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
53-69
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Stephon Castle misses three point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Julian Strawther misses three point jump shot
Luke Kornet kicked ball violation
Nuggets lineup change (Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Nikola Jokic)
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell)
+3
Devin Vassell makes three point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
29-45
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Jonas Valanciunas misses two point turnaround jump shot
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Nuggets turnover
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
29-45
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Dylan Harper blocks Christian Braun's two point layup
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
Devin Vassell misses three point jump shot
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
+2
Dylan Harper makes two point jump shot
82-97
+2
Julian Strawther makes two point driving finger roll layup
29-45
Spurs turnover
Julian Strawther personal foul (Harrison Barnes draws the foul)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Mason Plumlee, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
112-113
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
29-45
Nuggets lineup change (Julian Strawther, Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
112-113
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Jamal Murray turnover
De'Aaron Fox misses regular free throw 1 of 2
De'Aaron Fox offensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Spurs offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Mason Plumlee, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox)
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
112-113
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Jamal Murray misses two point jump shot
+3
Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot
58-71
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
Jonas Valanciunas misses two point driving hook shot
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs challenge timeout
Best Sportsbook Promotions
Why Join Multiple Sportsbooks? Loading...
Nuggets vs. Spurs: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Nuggets vs. Spurs
- Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Spurs favored at -3.5
- Total (Over/Under): 242.5
- Moneyline Odds: Nuggets +132, Spurs -145
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Nuggets: 37%
- Spurs: 63%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Nuggets 118-122 Spurs.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Nuggets a win probability of 37%, while the Spurs have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Nuggets in the NBA game at Frost Bank Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Nuggets vs. Spurs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
Related Articles
More Articles Loading...
...
...
Read Article
...
...
Read Article