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Bucks vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Bucks vs. Heat NBA game on March 12, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
105
112
Mar 12, 11:30PM Kaseya Center
Mar 12, 11:30PM Kaseya Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bucks | 21 | 25 | 40 | 19 | 105 |
Heat | 31 | 16 | 47 | 18 | 112 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
2%
98%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bucks | 21 | 25 | 40 | 19 | 105 |
Heat | 31 | 16 | 47 | 18 | 112 |
Q4 00:11 Ryan Rollins misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:23 Bucks misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:27 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:51 Giannis Antetokounmpo misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:02 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:23 Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point driving layup
Q4 1:33 Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:16 Pelle Larsson makes two point driving layup
Q4 2:26 Jericho Sims makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:38 Bam Adebayo misses two point pullup jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Ryan Rollins misses three point jump shot
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Bucks personal foul
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
105-112
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
105-111
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, AJ Green)
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses three point jump shot
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point driving layup
105-111
Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Jericho Sims personal foul (Loose ball) (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
105-112
Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul (Ryan Rollins draws the foul)
+1
Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
103-107
+1
Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
105-112
Bobby Portis personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
105-111
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
105-112
Kevin Porter Jr. turnover (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point driving layup
105-111
+2
Jericho Sims makes two point jump shot
105-111
Pelle Larsson shooting foul (Jericho Sims draws the foul)
+1
Jericho Sims makes regular free throw 1 of 1
105-112
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
98-103
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks personal foul
Bucks personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
105-112
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
105-112
Heat 60 second timeout
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Bucks offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo shooting foul (Giannis Antetokounmpo draws the foul)
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
105-112
Cam Thomas personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Heat offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
105-112
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Cam Thomas misses three point jump shot
Ryan Rollins offensive rebound
Kevin Porter Jr. misses three point jump shot
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
105-112
Bobby Portis personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
105-112
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, Cam Thomas)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, Cam Thomas)
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Kevin Porter Jr. misses two point tip layup
Kevin Porter Jr. offensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
105-112
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point stepback jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Kyle Kuzma misses three point jump shot
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Ryan Rollins offensive foul (Simone Fontecchio draws the foul)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo)
Ryan Rollins turnover (offensive foul)
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, Cam Thomas)
Bam Adebayo personal foul (Kyle Kuzma draws the foul)
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, Cam Thomas)
+3
Kyle Kuzma makes three point jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)
105-112
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
+3
Kyle Kuzma makes three point jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
105-112
Heat 60 second timeout
+2
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point jump shot
105-112
+3
Kyle Kuzma makes three point jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)
91-96
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
105-112
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Kyle Kuzma offensive rebound
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
89-96
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Bobby Portis, Cam Thomas)
Bobby Portis personal foul
+2
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point layup
105-112
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 1
105-112
Myron Gardner personal foul (Giannis Antetokounmpo draws the foul)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo)
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat turnover (5-second violation)
Davion Mitchell violation
Heat turnover
Ryan Rollins personal foul (Davion Mitchell draws the foul)
Ryan Rollins offensive foul (Charge) (Dru Smith draws the foul)
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo)
Ryan Rollins turnover (offensive foul)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Myron Gardner turnover (bad pass) (Taurean Prince steals)
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
86-94
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
86-94
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses two point layup
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
86-94
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point pullup jump shot (Cam Thomas assists)
86-94
Myron Gardner personal foul (Loose ball) (AJ Green draws the foul)
Heat offensive rebound
Myron Gardner turnover
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Taurean Prince, Bobby Portis, Cam Thomas)
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
82-90
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Dru Smith makes two point jump shot
86-94
+3
Bobby Portis makes three point jump shot
86-94
+3
Myron Gardner makes three point running pullup jump shot
86-94
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses two point jump shot
Jump ball. Bobby Portis vs. Myron Gardner (AJ Green gains possession)
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Myron Gardner, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Taurean Prince, Bobby Portis, AJ Green)
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Ryan Rollins personal foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
86-94
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
105-112
+3
Bobby Portis makes three point jump shot
105-112
+3
Kasparas Jakucionis makes three point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
74-83
Dru Smith offensive rebound
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Dru Smith misses two point tip layup
Kel'el Ware misses two point tip layup
Dru Smith offensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Taurean Prince misses two point jump shot
+2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
86-94
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Taurean Prince defensive rebound
Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point pullup jump shot
+3
Taurean Prince makes three point jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)
105-112
Kel'el Ware turnover
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
86-94
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Ryan Rollins makes two point driving floating jump shot
86-94
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
86-94
Heat 60 second timeout
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Jericho Sims, Taurean Prince, Bobby Portis, AJ Green)
+2
Bobby Portis makes two point jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)
61-73
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Bobby Portis makes two point jump shot (AJ Green assists)
61-73
+3
Kasparas Jakucionis makes three point jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
86-94
+2
Bobby Portis makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Jericho Sims assists)
86-94
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses two point running layup
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Bobby Portis misses three point jump shot
+2
Dru Smith makes two point layup
61-72
Kevin Porter Jr. shooting foul (Dru Smith draws the foul)
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, AJ Green)
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 1
86-94
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Bucks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware)
Myles Turner defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
77-83
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kyle Kuzma personal foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr., Myles Turner, AJ Green)
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Bucks personal foul
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr., Myles Turner)
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
77-83
Heat turnover
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
77-83
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
77-83
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
Giannis Antetokounmpo turnover (offensive foul)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Myles Turner)
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
55-68
Davion Mitchell shooting foul (Giannis Antetokounmpo draws the foul)
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Bucks offensive rebound
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
77-83
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo turnover (lost ball)
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Myles Turner makes regular free throw 1 of 2
77-83
+1
Myles Turner makes regular free throw 2 of 2
77-83
Heat turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses two point pullup jump shot
Bucks 60 second timeout
+2
Davion Mitchell makes two point floating jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
52-66
Bucks personal foul
Kevin Porter Jr. turnover
Kel'el Ware turnover
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Davion Mitchell shooting foul (Giannis Antetokounmpo draws the foul)
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
52-66
Myles Turner defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point running layup
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
61-73
Heat defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Myles Turner misses three point jump shot
+3
Davion Mitchell makes three point jump shot
52-66
Kevin Porter Jr. turnover (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
End of 1st Half.
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Myles Turner, Ousmane Dieng)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
46-47
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Cam Thomas misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
46-47
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bucks turnover
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Jericho Sims, Myles Turner, Ousmane Dieng, Cam Thomas)
+2
Kasparas Jakucionis makes two point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
46-47
Ousmane Dieng shooting foul (Kasparas Jakucionis draws the foul)
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 1 of 1
46-47
+3
Myles Turner makes three point jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)
46-47
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Kel'el Ware misses two point turnaround hook shot
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Heat offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses two point driving finger roll layup
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot
46-47
+2
Myles Turner makes two point fadeaway jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
46-47
Bucks personal foul
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
46-47
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
46-47
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Ousmane Dieng, Cam Thomas)
+3
Ryan Rollins makes three point jump shot (Myles Turner assists)
46-47
Bucks personal foul
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Kel'el Ware makes regular free throw 2 of 2
46-47
Kel'el Ware misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
43-46
Heat 60 second timeout
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Cam Thomas)
Heat turnover
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
40-46
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
41-46
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
39-46
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
37-46
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
37-43
Bucks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Cam Thomas makes regular free throw 1 of 2
35-43
Cam Thomas misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Myles Turner, Cam Thomas)
Heat turnover
Heat 60 second timeout
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Cam Thomas)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
34-43
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
Giannis Antetokounmpo turnover (offensive foul)
Heat turnover
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
32-42
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
32-43
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo)
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
32-40
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, Cam Thomas)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Dru Smith, Myron Gardner, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
32-41
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio turnover
Heat personal foul
+1
Bobby Portis makes regular free throw 1 of 1
32-39
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cam Thomas)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cam Thomas)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cam Thomas)
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
31-39
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
29-39
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
29-37
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
26-37
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Jericho Sims, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cam Thomas)
Bucks personal foul
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
26-34
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
23-34
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
23-31
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Myron Gardner, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
Bucks turnover
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks personal foul
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Heat offensive rebound
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
21-31
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
18-31
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
18-29
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
18-26
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
16-26
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bucks turnover
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio misses two point tip layup
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Bucks personal foul
Kyle Kuzma turnover (offensive foul)
Heat 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Jericho Sims, Taurean Prince, Bobby Portis, AJ Green)
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
14-26
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
12-26
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware)
Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, Taurean Prince, Bobby Portis)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Heat turnover
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
12-24
Pelle Larsson misses two point jump shot
Bucks personal foul
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
10-23
Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, Taurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., Myles Turner)
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
10-24
Bucks turnover
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
10-22
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
8-22
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
8-20
Bucks personal foul
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
Bucks turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
8-17
Bucks 60 second timeout
Bucks turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
8-15
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
8-13
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
8-10
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
5-10
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
6-10
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
4-10
+3
Kasparas Jakucionis makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
2-10
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 20 | A. Green | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| F | 9 | B. Portis | 19 | 5 | 1 |
| F | 34 | G. Antetokounmpo | 31 | 6 | 3 |
| G | 13 | R. Rollins | 16 | 5 | 10 |
| G | 7 | K. Porter Jr. | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 25 | K. Jakucionis | 18 | 7 | 2 |
| F | 13 | B. Adebayo | 21 | 8 | 2 |
| G | 11 | J. Jaquez Jr. | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| F | 9 | P. Larsson | 28 | 6 | 6 |
| G | 45 | D. Mitchell | 13 | 5 | 5 |
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Bucks vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Bucks vs. Heat
- Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Heat favored at -6
- Total (Over/Under): 234.5
- Moneyline Odds: Bucks +195, Heat -208
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Bucks: 34%
- Heat: 66%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Bucks 114-119 Heat.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bucks a win probability of 34%, while the Heat have a win probability of 66%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Heat are more likely to beat the Bucks in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Bucks vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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