Spurs vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Warriors NBA game on February 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Spurs
126
113
Chase Center
Warriors
Chase Center
TEAM1234T
Spurs
31 32 59 0 126
Warriors
38 29 46 0 113
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Spurs
    95%
  • Warriors
    5%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Spurs
31 32 59 0 126
Warriors
38 29 46 0 113
Q4 00:46 Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:55 De'Aaron Fox makes two point running dunk
Q4 1:27 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:46 Brandin Podziemski makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
Q4 2:02 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:27 Warriors makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:46 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:04 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:14 Keldon Johnson makes two point driving hook shot (Dylan Harper assists)
Q4 3:33 Brandin Podziemski misses three point pullup jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:20
    Spurs turnover (shot clock violation)
  3. Q4 00:42
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:46
    Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
  5. Q4 00:55
    +2
    De'Aaron Fox makes two point running dunk
    122-113
  6. Q4 00:58
    Draymond Green turnover (lost ball) (De'Aaron Fox steals)
  7. Q4 1:04
    Warriors personal foul
  8. Q4 1:04
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-113
  9. Q4 1:04
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    122-113
  10. Q4 1:21
    Warriors turnover
  11. Q4 1:27
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  12. Q4 1:46
    +2
    Brandin Podziemski makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
    122-113
  13. Q4 1:56
    Spurs turnover
  14. Q4 2:00
    Spurs offensive rebound
  15. Q4 2:00
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  16. Q4 2:00
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  17. Q4 2:02
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  18. Q4 2:27
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  19. Q4 2:46
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  20. Q4 3:01
    Devin Vassell defensive rebound
  21. Q4 3:04
    Dylan Harper shooting foul (Draymond Green draws the foul)
  22. Q4 3:04
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  23. Q4 3:04
    Draymond Green misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  24. Q4 3:04
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  25. Q4 3:14
    +2
    Keldon Johnson makes two point driving hook shot (Dylan Harper assists)
    122-113
  26. Q4 3:30
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  27. Q4 3:33
    Brandin Podziemski misses three point pullup jump shot
  28. Q4 3:49
    Spurs personal foul
  29. Q4 3:49
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  30. Q4 3:49
    Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos)
  31. Q4 3:54
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  32. Q4 3:54
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  33. Q4 3:55
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  34. Q4 3:55
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  35. Q4 4:03
    Victor Wembanyama misses three point stepback jump shot
  36. Q4 4:10
    Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
  37. Q4 4:11
    Warriors personal foul
  38. Q4 4:11
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos)
  39. Q4 4:13
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  40. Q4 4:28
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
  41. Q4 4:28
    Spurs defensive rebound
  42. Q4 4:28
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  43. Q4 4:30
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  44. Q4 4:49
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  45. Q4 4:52
    Keldon Johnson misses three point running jump shot
  46. Q4 4:59
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  47. Q4 5:01
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  48. Q4 5:17
    Warriors defensive rebound
  49. Q4 5:17
    Spurs personal foul
  50. Q4 5:18
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  51. Q4 5:28
    Spurs personal foul
  52. Q4 5:28
    +1
    Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-113
  53. Q4 5:28
    +1
    Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    122-113
  54. Q4 5:28
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Quinten Post)
  55. Q4 5:47
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  56. Q4 6:14
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  57. Q4 6:27
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  58. Q4 6:51
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  59. Q4 7:03
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  60. Q4 7:03
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Quinten Post)
  61. Q4 7:03
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
  62. Q4 7:15
    Warriors violation
  63. Q4 7:15
    Warriors personal foul
  64. Q4 7:17
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  65. Q4 7:22
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  66. Q4 7:23
    Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
  67. Q4 7:23
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  68. Q4 7:28
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  69. Q4 7:47
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  70. Q4 7:49
    Al Horford shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  71. Q4 7:49
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-113
  72. Q4 7:49
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  73. Q4 7:49
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Luke Kornet, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
  74. Q4 8:04
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  75. Q4 8:29
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  76. Q4 8:33
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  77. Q4 8:37
    Al Horford misses three point jump shot
  78. Q4 8:47
    Warriors offensive rebound
  79. Q4 8:47
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  80. Q4 8:47
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
  81. Q4 8:47
    Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Pat Spencer, Quinten Post)
  82. Q4 8:50
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  83. Q4 9:06
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  84. Q4 9:11
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  85. Q4 9:14
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  86. Q4 9:25
    +2
    Victor Wembanyama makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  87. Q4 9:41
    +2
    Moses Moody makes two point driving reverse layup
    122-113
  88. Q4 9:42
    Moses Moody offensive rebound
  89. Q4 9:45
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  90. Q4 10:03
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  91. Q4 10:05
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  92. Q4 10:05
    Warriors personal foul
  93. Q4 10:05
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  94. Q4 10:05
    Instant replay
  95. Q4 10:05
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-113
  96. Q4 10:05
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  97. Q4 10:20
    Spurs defensive rebound
  98. Q4 10:20
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  99. Q4 10:20
    Stoppage (Court cleanup)
  100. Q4 10:22
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  101. Q4 10:39
    Gui Santos personal foul (Keldon Johnson draws the foul)
  102. Q4 10:39
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    97-94
  103. Q4 10:39
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    122-113
  104. Q4 10:39
    Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer)
  105. Q4 10:49
    Warriors turnover
  106. Q4 11:13
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  107. Q4 11:18
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  108. Q4 11:20
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  109. Q4 11:29
    Spurs personal foul
  110. Q4 11:42
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  111. Q4 11:43
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  112. Q3 00:00
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  113. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  114. Q4 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  115. Q3 00:06
    Warriors offensive rebound
  116. Q3 00:07
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  117. Q3 00:07
    Warriors turnover
  118. Q3 00:07
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer)
  119. Q3 00:31
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  120. Q3 00:35
    Warriors turnover
  121. Q3 00:47
    Quinten Post personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  122. Q3 00:47
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-113
  123. Q3 00:47
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    122-113
  124. Q3 00:47
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer)
  125. Q3 00:55
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  126. Q3 00:59
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  127. Q3 1:05
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  128. Q3 1:09
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  129. Q3 1:18
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  130. Q3 1:22
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  131. Q3 1:36
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    118-108
  132. Q3 1:36
    Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer, Quinten Post)
  133. Q3 1:36
    Warriors personal foul
  134. Q3 1:36
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    122-113
  135. Q3 1:47
    +2
    Draymond Green makes two point driving layup (Moses Moody assists)
    88-94
  136. Q3 1:54
    Moses Moody defensive rebound
  137. Q3 1:56
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point driving layup
  138. Q3 2:16
    Spurs personal foul
  139. Q3 2:16
    Quinten Post misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  140. Q3 2:16
    Warriors offensive rebound
  141. Q3 2:16
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox)
  142. Q3 2:16
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Quinten Post)
  143. Q3 2:16
    +1
    Quinten Post makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    122-113
  144. Q3 2:36
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  145. Q3 2:45
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  146. Q3 2:58
    Quinten Post defensive rebound
  147. Q3 3:02
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  148. Q3 3:22
    Brandin Podziemski personal foul
  149. Q3 3:22
    Brandin Podziemski turnover (offensive foul)
  150. Q3 3:22
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  151. Q3 3:38
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  152. Q3 3:59
    +3
    Quinten Post makes three point jump shot (De'Anthony Melton assists)
    122-113
  153. Q3 4:07
    Al Horford offensive rebound
  154. Q3 4:10
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  155. Q3 4:23
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  156. Q3 4:31
    Spurs defensive rebound
  157. Q3 4:31
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  158. Q3 4:33
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  159. Q3 4:51
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  160. Q3 4:51
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  161. Q3 4:51
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Quinten Post)
  162. Q3 4:57
    Warriors turnover
  163. Q3 5:06
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot (Luke Kornet assists)
    122-113
  164. Q3 5:11
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  165. Q3 5:12
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  166. Q3 5:30
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  167. Q3 5:33
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  168. Q3 5:49
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  169. Q3 5:56
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  170. Q3 5:58
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  171. Q3 6:14
    Warriors personal foul
  172. Q3 6:14
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  173. Q3 6:14
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    122-113
  174. Q3 6:25
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  175. Q3 6:25
    Spurs violation
  176. Q3 6:25
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  177. Q3 6:25
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
  178. Q3 6:25
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
  179. Q3 6:25
    Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  180. Q3 6:42
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  181. Q3 6:44
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  182. Q3 6:50
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  183. Q3 7:02
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  184. Q3 7:12
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  185. Q3 7:16
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  186. Q3 7:26
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  187. Q3 7:33
    Warriors offensive rebound
  188. Q3 7:33
    Spurs personal foul
  189. Q3 7:33
    Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  190. Q3 7:33
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  191. Q3 7:34
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  192. Q3 7:45
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  193. Q3 7:46
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  194. Q3 7:58
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  195. Q3 8:00
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  196. Q3 8:06
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  197. Q3 8:08
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  198. Q3 8:14
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  199. Q3 8:16
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  200. Q3 8:41
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  201. Q3 8:41
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  202. Q3 8:41
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  203. Q3 8:49
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  204. Q3 8:50
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  205. Q3 9:05
    De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
  206. Q3 9:09
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  207. Q3 9:30
    Spurs personal foul
  208. Q3 9:30
    Pat Spencer misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  209. Q3 9:30
    Warriors offensive rebound
  210. Q3 9:30
    +1
    Pat Spencer makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    122-113
  211. Q3 9:50
    +2
    Stephon Castle makes two point driving layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)
    122-113
  212. Q3 9:50
    Warriors personal foul
  213. Q3 9:50
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    122-113
  214. Q3 9:55
    Warriors personal foul
  215. Q3 10:02
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  216. Q3 10:02
    Spurs personal foul
  217. Q3 10:02
    +1
    Draymond Green makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    122-113
  218. Q3 10:24
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  219. Q3 10:35
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  220. Q3 10:39
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  221. Q3 10:40
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  222. Q3 10:45
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  223. Q3 10:49
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  224. Q3 10:51
    Spurs offensive rebound
  225. Q3 10:51
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  226. Q3 10:53
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  227. Q3 11:06
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  228. Q3 11:17
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  229. Q3 11:18
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  230. Q3 11:18
    Spurs personal foul
  231. Q3 11:36
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    122-113
  232. Q3 11:38
    Draymond Green offensive rebound
  233. Q3 11:38
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  234. Q3 11:38
    Gui Santos offensive rebound
  235. Q3 11:39
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  236. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  237. Q2 00:00
    Brandin Podziemski misses heave shot
  238. Q2 00:00
    Warriors offensive rebound
  239. Q3 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  240. Q3 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox)
  241. Q2 1:18
    Devin Vassell defensive rebound
  242. Q2 1:19
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  243. Q2 6:28
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Carter Bryant)
  244. Q2 6:28
    Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  245. Q2 11:23
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    122-113
  246. Q1 4:56
    Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
  247. Q1 4:56
    Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  248. Q1 4:56
    Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
  249. Q1 5:08
    Warriors turnover
  250. Q1 5:16
    Al Horford offensive rebound
  251. Q1 5:17
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  252. Q1 5:25
    Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Pat Spencer)
  253. Q1 5:25
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
  254. Q1 7:04
    Warriors turnover
Box Score
Spurs
PosPlayerPts
Warriors
PosPlayerPts

Spurs vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Spurs vs. Warriors
  • Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Spurs favored at -7.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Spurs -225, Warriors +220

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Spurs: 71%
  • Warriors: 29%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 114-107 Warriors.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 71%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 29%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Warriors in the NBA game at Chase Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Spurs vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.