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- Predictions
Spurs vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Warriors NBA game on February 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
126
113
Feb 12, 3AM Chase Center
Feb 12, 3AM Chase Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 31 | 32 | 59 | 0 | 126 |
Warriors | 38 | 29 | 46 | 0 | 113 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
95%
5%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 31 | 32 | 59 | 0 | 126 |
Warriors | 38 | 29 | 46 | 0 | 113 |
Q4 00:46 Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:55 De'Aaron Fox makes two point running dunk
Q4 1:27 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:46 Brandin Podziemski makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
Q4 2:02 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:27 Warriors makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:46 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:04 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:14 Keldon Johnson makes two point driving hook shot (Dylan Harper assists)
Q4 3:33 Brandin Podziemski misses three point pullup jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Spurs turnover (shot clock violation)
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point running dunk
122-113
Draymond Green turnover (lost ball) (De'Aaron Fox steals)
Warriors personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-113
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-113
Warriors turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
+2
Brandin Podziemski makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
122-113
Spurs turnover
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
122-113
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Dylan Harper shooting foul (Draymond Green draws the foul)
Spurs 60 second timeout
Draymond Green misses regular free throw 1 of 1
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-113
+2
Keldon Johnson makes two point driving hook shot (Dylan Harper assists)
122-113
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses three point pullup jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos)
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama misses three point stepback jump shot
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Quinten Post defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses three point running jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors defensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
+1
Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-113
+1
Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-113
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Quinten Post)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-113
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
122-113
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
122-113
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Quinten Post)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
Warriors violation
Warriors personal foul
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Al Horford defensive rebound
Al Horford shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-113
Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Luke Kornet, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
122-113
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
122-113
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Al Horford misses three point jump shot
Warriors offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper)
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Pat Spencer, Quinten Post)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Victor Wembanyama makes two point jump shot
122-113
+2
Moses Moody makes two point driving reverse layup
122-113
Moses Moody offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Warriors personal foul
Warriors 60 second timeout
Instant replay
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-113
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Gui Santos personal foul (Keldon Johnson draws the foul)
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-113
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer)
Warriors turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Draymond Green defensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
End of 3rd Quarter.
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
Warriors offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Warriors turnover
Quinten Post personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-113
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-113
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer)
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
118-108
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer, Quinten Post)
Warriors personal foul
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-113
+2
Draymond Green makes two point driving layup (Moses Moody assists)
88-94
Moses Moody defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses two point driving layup
Spurs personal foul
Quinten Post misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox)
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Quinten Post)
+1
Quinten Post makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-113
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
122-113
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-113
Quinten Post defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski personal foul
Brandin Podziemski turnover (offensive foul)
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
+3
Quinten Post makes three point jump shot (De'Anthony Melton assists)
122-113
Al Horford offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Spurs defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Quinten Post)
Warriors turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot (Luke Kornet assists)
122-113
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors personal foul
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
122-113
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-113
Spurs violation
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-113
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-113
Warriors offensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Pat Spencer misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Pat Spencer makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-113
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point driving layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)
122-113
Warriors personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
122-113
Warriors personal foul
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
122-113
Spurs personal foul
+1
Draymond Green makes regular free throw 1 of 1
122-113
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Spurs 60 second timeout
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
122-113
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
122-113
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
122-113
Draymond Green offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Gui Santos offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
End of 1st Half.
Brandin Podziemski misses heave shot
Warriors offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox)
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Carter Bryant)
Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
122-113
Spurs lineup change (Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper)
Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
Warriors lineup change (Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer)
Warriors turnover
Al Horford offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Pat Spencer)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper)
Warriors turnover
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 1 | V. Wembanyama | 26 | 9 | 4 |
| F-G | 3 | K. Johnson | 21 | 6 | 2 |
| G | 4 | D. Fox | 27 | 0 | 8 |
| G | 2 | D. Harper | 14 | 5 | 8 |
| F | 40 | H. Barnes | 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 23 | D. Green | 17 | 12 | 8 |
| C-F | 20 | A. Horford | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| G | 2 | B. Podziemski | 16 | 5 | 2 |
| F | 15 | G. Santos | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| F | 4 | M. Moody | 17 | 4 | 2 |
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Spurs vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Spurs vs. Warriors
- Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Spurs favored at -7.5
- Total (Over/Under): 220.5
- Moneyline Odds: Spurs -225, Warriors +220
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Spurs: 71%
- Warriors: 29%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 114-107 Warriors.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 71%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 29%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Warriors in the NBA game at Chase Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Spurs vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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