Toronto vs. Chicago Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toronto vs. Chicago MLS match on May 23, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS sport icon
MLS
Toronto
1
2
Soldier Field
Chicago
Soldier Field
ChicagoCHI
Score Summary
TorontoTOR
R. Lod (22')
Soccer ball icon
A. Gutman (65')
Soccer ball icon
J. Sargent (34')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Chicago
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toronto
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    T. Corbeanu (Toronto FC) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Osorio (Toronto FC) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    C. Brady (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  4. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: C. Mueller replaces P. Zinckernagel
  5. 87'
    Yellow Card
    A. Saletros (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  6. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: R. Edwards replaces J. Gilman
  7. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: J. Vilsaint replaces M. Henry
  8. 79'
    Yellow Card
    W. Zimmerman (Toronto FC) cautioned
  9. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: P. Dithejane replaces M. Haile-Selassie
  10. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: T. Corbeanu replaces D. Etienne
  11. 65'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chicago Fire by A. Gutman, assisted by P. Zinckernagel
    1-2
  12. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: J. Waterman replaces M. Mbokazi
  13. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chicago Fire: D. D'Avilla replaces M. Pineda
  14. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: E. Aristizabal replaces J. Sargent
  15. 60'
    Yellow Card
    A. Gutman (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: Z. Monlouis replaces N. Gomis
  17. 40'
    Yellow Card
    H. Cuypers (Chicago Fire) cautioned
  18. 34'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by J. Sargent, assisted by A. Coello
    1-1
  19. 22'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chicago Fire by R. Lod, assisted by M. Haile-Selassie
    0-1
  20. 14'
    Yellow Card
    M. Henry (Toronto FC) cautioned

Toronto vs. Chicago: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toronto vs. Chicago
  • Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Soldier Field

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toronto +650, Chicago -233, draw +400
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-211/+160)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toronto: 16.1%
  • Chicago: 64.9%
  • Draw: 19.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toronto 1-2 Chicago (9.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Toronto vs. Chicago? Prediction & correct score

Chicago is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 64.9%.

The most likely correct score is Toronto 1-2 Chicago.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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