Padres vs. Mariners Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Padres vs. Mariners MLB game on May 16, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Padres
Walker Buehler 2-2, 5.20 ERA
7
4
May 16, 7:15 PM ET T-Mobile Park
Mariners
Logan Gilbert 2-3, 3.78 ERA
May 16, 7:15 PM ET T-Mobile Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Padres
0 1 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 7 7 0
Mariners
0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 4 8 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Padres
    100%
  • Mariners
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Josh Naylor grounds out to first base, Gavin Sheets to Jeremiah Estrada.
Quick Box Score
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Merrill CF4000002.0000.000
2 F. Tatis RF3000011.0000.250
3 M. Machado DH3100010.0000.250
4 G. Sheets 1B2111121.5002.750
5 X. Bogaerts SS4110001.2500.500
6 M. Andujar 3B4111000.2500.500
7 S. Song 2B10100001.0002.000
8 R. Laureano LF4110001.2500.750
9 R. Durán C4112100.2501.250
Mariners Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 J. Crawford SS5121102.4001.400
2 J. Rodríguez CF5110001.2000.400
3 J. Naylor 1B4220010.5001.100
4 R. Arozarena LF3011011.3330.833
5 L. Raley RF4010001.2500.500
6 C. Young 2B4012001.2500.500
7 R. Refsnyder DH1000000.0000.000
8 J. Pereda C4000002.0000.000
9 C. Joe PH0000010.0001.000

Padres vs. Mariners: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Padres vs. Mariners
  • Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
  • Time: 7:15 PM ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Mariners favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Padres +160, Mariners -154

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Padres: 40%
  • Mariners: 60%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Padres a win probability of 40%, while the Mariners have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Mariners are more likely to beat the Padres in the MLB game at T-Mobile Park on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Padres vs. Mariners predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.