Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Orioles vs. Yankees MLB game on May 4, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Orioles
Shane Baz 1-2, 4.50 ERA
1
12
Yankee Stadium
Yankees
Cam Schlittler 4-1, 1.51 ERA
Yankee Stadium
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Orioles
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 10 1
Yankees
2 0 1 0 0 3 0 6 X 12 10 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Orioles
    0%
  • Yankees
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Adley Rutschman grounds out to first base, Paul Goldschmidt to Paul Blackburn.
Quick Box Score
Orioles Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 G. Henderson SS5010001.2000.400
2 A. Rutschman C5010001.2000.400
3 D. Beavers RF4110002.2500.500
4 P. Alonso 1B4010001.2500.500
5 S. Basallo DH4000001.0000.000
6 L. Taveras CF3010011.3331.167
7 C. Cowser LF2011020.5001.250
8 J. Jackson 2B4010001.2500.500
9 B. Alexander 3B4030000.7501.500
Yankees Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 T. Grisham CF3321020.6672.133
2 M. Schuemann RF0000000.0000.000
3 C. Bellinger LF4113000.2500.950
4 J. Domínguez DH4111010.2500.650
5 J. Chisholm 2B4210011.2500.650
6 P. Goldschmidt 1B4010001.2500.500
7 A. Wells C2200021.0000.500
8 R. McMahon 3B4011001.2500.500
9 J. Caballero SS3111010.3331.167

Orioles vs. Yankees: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Orioles vs. Yankees
  • Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
  • Time: 7:05 PM ET
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Yankees favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Orioles 33¢, Yankees 66¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Orioles: 35%
  • Yankees: 65%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Orioles a win probability of 35%, while the Yankees have a win probability of 65%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Yankees are more likely to beat the Orioles in the MLB game at Yankee Stadium on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Orioles vs. Yankees predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.