Astros vs. Orioles Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Astros vs. Orioles MLB game on April 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Astros
Kai-Wei Teng 1-1, 2.16 ERA
3
5
Apr 28, 6:35 PM ET Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Orioles
Shane Baz 0-2, 5.08 ERA
Apr 28, 6:35 PM ET Oriole Park at Camden Yards
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Astros
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 11 0
Orioles
2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 X 5 9 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Astros
    0%
  • Orioles
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Jose Altuve grounds out to shallow infield, Blaze Alexander to Pete Alonso.
Quick Box Score
Astros Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 C. Correa SS5010002.2000.400
2 Y. Alvarez DH4010000.2500.650
3 I. Paredes 3B4000011.0000.200
4 J. Altuve 2B5000002.0000.000
5 C. Walker 1B4120000.5001.250
6 Y. Diaz C4020001.5001.250
7 D. Harris LF4111002.2501.000
8 C. Smith RF4010003.2500.500
9 B. Matthews CF4132101.7502.500
Orioles Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 G. Henderson SS3210010.3331.167
2 T. Ward LF3110011.3330.833
3 A. Rutschman C4122001.5001.000
4 P. Alonso 1B4112100.2501.250
5 S. Basallo DH4021001.5001.250
6 L. Taveras CF4010001.2500.500
7 T. O'Neill RF1000001.0000.000
8 B. Alexander 3B0000000.0000.000
9 J. Jackson 2B3010001.3330.666

Astros vs. Orioles: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Astros vs. Orioles
  • Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2026
  • Time: 6:35 PM ET
  • Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Orioles favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 9.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Astros +125, Orioles -123

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Astros: 47%
  • Orioles: 53%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Astros a win probability of 47%, while the Orioles have a win probability of 53%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Orioles are more likely to beat the Astros in the MLB game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Astros vs. Orioles predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.