Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad La Liga match on February 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LA LIGA
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Real Sociedad
1
:
1
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic BilbaoBIL
Score Summary
Real SociedadRSO
I. Ruiz de Galarreta (88')
Soccer ball icon
G. Guedes (37')
Soccer ball icon
B. Mendez (83')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Athletic Bilbao
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Real Sociedad
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 88'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by I. Ruiz de Galarreta, assisted by Y. Berchiche
    1-1
  2. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Sociedad: A. Munoz replaces P. Marin
  3. 84'
    Yellow Card
    A. Paredes (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  4. 83'
    Red Card
    B. Mendez (Real Sociedad) sent off with a straight red card
  5. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Gorosabel replaces J. Areso
  6. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Sociedad: O. Oskarsson replaces M. Oyarzabal
  7. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Sociedad: Wesley replaces G. Guedes
  8. 75'
    Yellow Card
    Izeta (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  9. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: I. Williams replaces N. Williams
  10. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: Izeta replaces A. Berenguer
  11. 69'
    Yellow Card
    J. Areso (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  12. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Sociedad: B. Turrientes replaces J. Gorrotxategi
  13. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Sociedad: B. Mendez replaces L. Sucic
  14. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: R. Navarro replaces U. Gomez
  15. 57'
    Yellow Card
    Y. Berchiche (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  16. 51'
    Yellow Card
    J. Martin (Real Sociedad) cautioned
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: I. Ruiz de Galarreta replaces A. Rego
  18. 37'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Sociedad by G. Guedes, assisted by S. Gomez
    1-0
  19. 23'
    Yellow Card
    I. Zubeldia (Real Sociedad) cautioned

Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad
  • Date: Sunday, February 1, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Athletic Bilbao +125, Real Sociedad +260, draw +210
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+122/-148)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Athletic Bilbao: 44.3%
  • Real Sociedad: 27.6%
  • Draw: 28.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Sociedad (13.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs. Real Sociedad? Prediction & correct score

Athletic Bilbao is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 44.3%.

The most likely correct score is Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Sociedad.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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