Mallorca vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Mallorca vs. Athletic Bilbao La Liga match on January 17, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Athletic Bilbao
2
3
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Mallorca
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
MallorcaMCA
Score Summary
Athletic BilbaoBIL
V. Muriqi (5')
Soccer ball icon
V. Muriqi (42')
Soccer ball icon
V. Muriqi (pen.) (69')
Soccer ball icon
U. Gomez (8')
Soccer ball icon
N. Williams (45')
Soccer ball icon
G. Guruzeta (70')
Red Card icon
U. Gomez (71')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Mallorca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Athletic Bilbao
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mallorca: J. Llabres replaces S. Darder
  2. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mallorca: J. Mojica replaces T. Lato
  3. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mallorca: P. Torre replaces J. Virgili
  4. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Gorosabel replaces J. Areso
  5. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: Izeta replaces I. Ruiz de Galarreta
  6. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mallorca: A. Sanchez replaces M. Joseph
  7. 73'
    Yellow Card
    O. Sancet (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  8. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: R. Navarro replaces N. Williams
  9. 72'
    Yellow Card
    A. Boiro (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  10. 72'
    Yellow Card
    I. Lekue (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  11. 71'
    Red Card
    U. Gomez (Ath Bilbao) sent off with a straight red card
  12. 70'
    Red Card
    G. Guruzeta (Ath Bilbao) sent off for a second yellow card
  13. 69'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Mallorca by V. Muriqi (pen.)
    2-3
  14. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: I. Williams replaces A. Berenguer
  15. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: O. Sancet replaces U. Gomez
  16. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by N. Williams, assisted by U. Gomez
    2-2
  17. 45'
    Yellow Card
    J. Areso (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    G. Guruzeta (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  19. 45'
    Yellow Card
    I. Ruiz de Galarreta (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  20. 42'
    Penalty missed by V. Muriqi for Mallorca
  21. 42'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Mallorca by V. Muriqi
    1-2
  22. 40'
    Yellow Card
    D. Vivian (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  23. 18'
    Yellow Card
    M. Kumbulla (Mallorca) cautioned
  24. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by U. Gomez, assisted by G. Guruzeta
    1-1
  25. 5'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Mallorca by V. Muriqi, assisted by S. Darder
    0-1

Mallorca vs. Athletic Bilbao: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Mallorca vs. Athletic Bilbao
  • Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
  • Time: 10:15 AM ET
  • Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Mallorca +270, Athletic Bilbao +120, draw +215
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+138/-170)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Mallorca: 27.6%
  • Athletic Bilbao: 45.0%
  • Draw: 27.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Mallorca 0-1 Athletic Bilbao (12.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Mallorca vs. Athletic Bilbao? Prediction & correct score

Athletic Bilbao is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 45.0%.

The most likely correct score is Mallorca 0-1 Athletic Bilbao.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

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