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Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Prediction, Picks and Odds
Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Premier League match on March 4, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
FINAL
PREMIER LEAGUE
FINAL
PREMIER LEAGUE
4
1
Mar 4, 2:30 PM ET Villa Park
Mar 4, 2:30 PM ET Villa Park
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Pre-Game PredictionsPre-Game
Pro Bets
Score Summary
Douglas Luiz (2')
Joao Pedro (35')
Joao Pedro (45')
C. Palmer (55')
Joao Pedro (64')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
- Aston Villa
- Chelsea
Win Probability
Match Timeline
Substitution for Chelsea: L. Delap replaces Joao Pedro
Substitution for Chelsea: Andrey Santos replaces C. Palmer
Substitution for Chelsea: T. Adarabioyo replaces W. Fofana
Substitution for Chelsea: M. Cucurella replaces E. Fernandez
Substitution for Chelsea: R. Lavia replaces M. Gusto
Substitution for Aston Villa: T. Abraham replaces O. Watkins
O. Watkins (Aston Villa) cautioned
Goal scored for Chelsea by Joao Pedro, assisted by A. Garnacho
4-1
Substitution for Aston Villa: J. Sancho replaces E. Buendia
Substitution for Aston Villa: R. Barkley replaces Douglas Luiz
Substitution for Aston Villa: Alysson replaces L. Bailey
M. Rogers (Aston Villa) cautioned
E. Fernandez (Chelsea) cautioned
Goal scored for Chelsea by C. Palmer, assisted by Joao Pedro
3-1
Joao Pedro (Chelsea) cautioned
Substitution for Aston Villa: L. Bogarde replaces M. Cash
Goal scored for Chelsea by Joao Pedro, assisted by E. Fernandez
2-1
VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
Goal scored for Chelsea by Joao Pedro, assisted by M. Gusto
1-1
M. Cash (Aston Villa) cautioned
Goal scored for Aston Villa by Douglas Luiz, assisted by L. Bailey
0-1
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Aston Villa vs. Chelsea: Match prediction & analysis
Match overview
- Teams: Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
- Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
- Time: 2:30 PM ET
- Venue: Villa Park
Current betting odds
- Moneyline: Aston Villa +170, Chelsea +160, draw +250
- Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-135/+116)
Dimers' win & correct score probabilities
- Aston Villa: 35.3%
- Chelsea: 40.8%
- Draw: 24.0%
These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.
Most likely correct score: Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea (10.9%)
Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.
Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?
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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.
Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:
- Today's best bets
- Moneyline probabilities
- Total goals probabilities
- Correct score probabilities
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Who will win Aston Villa vs. Chelsea? Prediction & correct score
Chelsea is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 40.8%.
The most likely correct score is Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea.
But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.
Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.
Responsible gambling
Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Aston Villa vs. Chelsea, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.
