Leeds vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Leeds vs. Aston Villa Premier League match on November 23, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Aston Villa
2
1
Elland Road
Leeds
Elland Road
LeedsLU
Score Summary
Aston VillaVIL
L. Nmecha (8')
Soccer ball icon
M. Rogers (48')
Soccer ball icon
M. Rogers (75')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Leeds
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Aston Villa
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 89'
    Yellow Card
    W. Gnonto (Leeds) cautioned
  2. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: L. Bogarde replaces Y. Tielemans
  3. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: W. Gnonto replaces N. Okafor
  4. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: J. Piroe replaces B. Aaronson
  5. 77'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - handball
  6. 75'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by M. Rogers
    2-1
  7. 74'
    Yellow Card
    P. Struijk (Leeds) cautioned
  8. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: D. Calvert-Lewin replaces A. Tanaka
  9. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: D. James replaces L. Nmecha
  10. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: R. Barkley replaces J. McGinn
  11. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: J. Sancho replaces O. Watkins
  12. 63'
    Yellow Card
    E. Ampadu (Leeds) cautioned
  13. 53'
    Yellow Card
    J. McGinn (Aston Villa) cautioned
  14. 48'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by M. Rogers, assisted by D. Malen
    1-1
  15. 47'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: D. Malen replaces E. Buendia
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: I. Maatsen replaces L. Digne
  17. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Tanaka (Leeds) cautioned
  18. 41'
    Yellow Card
    J. Bogle (Leeds) cautioned
  19. 23'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Leeds: A. Tanaka replaces A. Stach
  20. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Leeds by L. Nmecha
    0-1

Leeds vs. Aston Villa: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Leeds vs. Aston Villa
  • Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
  • Time: 9:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Elland Road

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Leeds +240, Aston Villa +120, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+115/-130)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Leeds: 29.5%
  • Aston Villa: 44.8%
  • Draw: 25.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Leeds 1-1 Aston Villa (12.2%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Leeds vs. Aston Villa? Prediction & correct score

Aston Villa is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 44.8%.

The most likely correct score is Leeds 1-1 Aston Villa.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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