France vs. Morocco prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Quarter-Final]

World Cup 2026 action continues on Thursday at 4:00 PM ET as Morocco locks horns with France in the quarterfinals at Gillette Stadium.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts France as the most likely winner of the France vs. Morocco game.

Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

France vs. Morocco prediction: Who will win and advance to the Semi-Finals?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's World Cup 2026 matchup between France and Morocco, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 59.6% chance of France winning, a 16.0% chance for Morocco, and a 24.4% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 58.4% chance of staying under, with a 59.1% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, France holds a 39.6% probability to win without conceding, with Morocco given a 9.9% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is France to win or draw at 84.0%.

A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.

Morocco vs. France odds

We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

France	Morocco	Draw
-160	+590	+308

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-104	+100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

France vs. Morocco picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Morocco @ +590 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +100 via Novig
• Win to Nil: France @ +150 via ESPN BET
• Double Chance: Morocco or Draw @ +140 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ -108 via FanDuel

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

France vs. Morocco: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 France win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
France 1-0 Morocco	15.7%
France 2-0 Morocco	12.8%
France 1-1 Morocco	11.1%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 40.9% chance of both France and Morocco finding the net and a 59.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

France vs. Morocco player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in France-Morocco:

France

• Kylian Mbappe: 40.3% probability
• Ousmane Dembele: 22.8% probability
• Michael Olise: 20.4% probability
• Desire Doue: 18.8% probability
• Adrien Rabiot: 10.3% probability

Morocco

• Brahim Diaz: 14.4% probability
• Azzedine Ounahi: 9.9% probability
• Chemsdine Talbi: 8.6% probability
• Bilal Khannouss: 8.6% probability
• Achraf Hakimi: 7.5% probability

France vs. Morocco game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's soccer World Cup game between France and Morocco at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:00 PM ET.

• Who: France vs. Morocco
• Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, France has a 59.6% win probability on Thursday, Morocco has a 16.0% win probability, and there is a 24.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.