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Read Article Spain vs. Belgium prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Quarter-Final]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Spain vs Belgium predictions for World Cup 2026 Friday.
Spain and Belgium will lock horns in the quarterfinals of the World Cup 2026 at SoFi Stadium on Friday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model projects Spain as the most likely winner of the Spain vs. Belgium game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Spain vs. Belgium prediction: Who will win and advance to the Semi-Finals?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's World Cup 2026 game between Spain and Belgium, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model suggests a 59.9% chance of Spain winning, a 17.7% chance for Belgium, and a 22.4% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51.2% chance of going over, with a 50.6% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Spain holds a 34.7% probability to win without conceding, with Belgium at 9.3%.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Spain to win or draw at 82.3%.
Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.
Belgium vs. Spain odds
We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Spain | Belgium | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -147 | +500 | +300 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -125 | +125 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spain vs. Belgium picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Belgium @ +500 via ESPN BET
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +125 via Novig
- Win to Nil: Spain @ +185 via ESPN BET
- Double Chance: Spain or Belgium @ -390 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +110 via DraftKings
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Spain vs. Belgium: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 Spain win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spain 1-0 Belgium | 12.1% |
| Spain 2-0 Belgium | 11.1% |
| Spain 1-1 Belgium | 10.7% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 50.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Spain vs. Belgium player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Spain-Belgium:
Spain
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 33.0% probability
- Lamine Yamal: 27.5% probability
- Dani Olmo: 20.0% probability
- Alex Baena: 18.9% probability
- Fabian Ruiz: 12.6% probability
Belgium
- Charles De Ketelaere: 14.8% probability
- Leandro Trossard: 12.0% probability
- Kevin De Bruyne: 11.9% probability
- Jeremy Doku: 10.9% probability
- Youri Tielemans: 7.9% probability
Spain vs. Belgium game-day updates and essential details
Friday's FIFA World Cup action between Spain and Belgium at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Spain vs. Belgium
- Date: Friday, July 10, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: SoFi Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Spain has a 59.9% win probability on Friday, Belgium has a 17.7% win probability, and there is a 22.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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