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Read Article United States vs. Australia prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get United States vs Australia predictions for World Cup 2026 Friday.
United States will take on Australia in Group D of the World Cup 2026 at Lumen Field on Friday, commencing at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts United States as the most likely winner of the United States vs. Australia game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
United States vs. Australia prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's World Cup 2026 matchup between United States and Australia, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 55.5% chance of United States winning, a 20.5% chance for Australia, and a 24.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51.1% chance of staying under, with a 50.5% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, United States holds a 32.2% probability to win without conceding, with Australia given a 11.1% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is United States to win or draw at 79.5%.
Australia vs. United States odds
We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| United States | Australia | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -175 | +525 | +320 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +125 | -135 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
United States vs. Australia picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Australia @ +525 via BetMGM
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +125 via BetMGM
- Win to Nil: Australia @ +725 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: Australia or Draw @ +135 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: Yes @ +130 via BetMGM
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Australia to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
United States vs. Australia: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 United States win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| United States 1-0 Australia | 12.2% |
| United States 1-1 Australia | 11.4% |
| United States 2-0 Australia | 10.4% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.5% chance of both sides finding the net and a 50.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.
United States vs. Australia player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in United States-Australia:
United States
- Folarin Balogun: 29.8% probability
- Ricardo Pepi: 26.2% probability
- Malik Tillman: 19.0% probability
- Weston McKennie: 13.4% probability
- Sergino Dest: 12.9% probability
Australia
- Mohamed Toure: 14.7% probability
- Nishan Velupillay: 10.4% probability
- Mathew Leckie: 8.9% probability
- Jacob Italiano: 6.0% probability
- Jordan Bos: 5.5% probability
United States vs. Australia game-day updates and essential details
Friday's soccer World Cup game between United States and Australia at Lumen Field is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: United States vs. Australia
- Date: Friday, June 19, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Lumen Field
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, United States has a 55.5% win probability on Friday, Australia has a 20.5% win probability, and there is a 24.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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