Jul 22, 2026
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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/21.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, July 21, 2026—are live with the Mercury's Kahleah Copper projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Copper, Nneka Ogwumike and Olivia Miles lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 21, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 16.0% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 13.6% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 13.2% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 12.6% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.0% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 11.9% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.5% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 11.1% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.6% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 10.4% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 10.2% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 9.9% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.2% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.1% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 7.5% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.4% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 6.6% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.4% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 4.7% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 3.6% | +1100 | 11.9% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 2.0% | +900 | 12.0% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 0.4% | +1300 | 7.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, July 21, 2026, Kahleah Copper, Nneka Ogwumike and Olivia Miles lead our first basket projections, while Kayla McBride shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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