Fire vs. Mystics prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/16/2026]

The Washington Mystics and Portland Fire will lock horns in the WNBA at CareFirst Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mystics as the most likely winner of the Fire vs. Mystics game.

The Mystics, with stars like Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, are set to take on the Fire, who feature Carla Leite, Bridget Carleton and Emily Engstler.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Fire vs. Mystics prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Fire and Mystics, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mystics a 77.3% chance of defeating the Fire.

According to our model, the Mystics (-6.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 162.5-point over/under has a 56.5% chance of going over,.

Fire vs. Mystics odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Fire	Mystics
Spread	+6.5 (+106)	-6.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+230	-245
Total	o162.5 (-106)	u162.5 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fire vs. Mystics picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mystics -6.5	-105
Moneyline	Mystics	-245
Total	Over 162.5	-106

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mystics to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Fire vs. Mystics player props

Looking for Fire vs. Mystics WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.

Carla Leite is expected to lead the Fire with 13 points, 2 rebounds and 5 assists, while Shakira Austin is projected to have 17 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mystics.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kiki Iriafen as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Fire prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Carla Leite	13	2	5	1	27
B. Carleton	10	4	2	3	23
Emily Engstler	9	6	2	1	29
Sarah Barker	9	3	2	1	20
Frieda Buhner	8	2	1	1	15

Mystics prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Shakira Austin	17	8	3	0	38
Sonia Citron	16	4	3	2	31
Kiki Iriafen	15	9	2	0	32
M. Onyenwere	9	2	2	1	18
Lauren Betts	9	4	2	0	20

Fire vs. Mystics game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's action between the Mystics and Fire at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Portland Fire vs. Washington Mystics
• Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: CareFirst Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Mystics, with a 77.3% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.