Liberty vs. Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 17 points in Saturday's WNBA matchup [7/18/2026]

The Indiana Fever will square off with the New York Liberty, in what is expected to be a tight WNBA game, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Saturday, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model gives the Fever a slight edge with a 54.1% win probability over the Liberty.

The Fever, led by Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston, are set to take on the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

Clark, the Fever's No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft, is expected to shine with a projected 17 points and 2 threes.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's Liberty vs. Fever matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Fever prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Fever, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Fever a 54.1% chance of beating the Liberty.

According to our model, the Fever (+1.5) have a 59.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 185 points has a 71.0% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Fever odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Fever
Spread	-1.5 (-106)	+1.5 (-102)
Moneyline	-115	+110
Total	o185 (-110)	u185 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Fever picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Fever +1.5	-102
Moneyline	Fever	+110
Total	Under 185	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 185 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Fever player props

Betting on New York vs. Indiana WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 21 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kelsey Mitchell is projected to have 21 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fever.

When evaluating the first basket market, Breanna Stewart is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 14.3% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	21	7	3	1	41
Sabrina Ionescu	18	4	5	2	38
Jonquel Jones	15	8	3	2	34
Pauline Astier	9	2	3	0	20
Marine Johannes	8	2	2	1	18

Fever prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fever:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	21	2	3	3	32
Caitlin Clark	17	4	7	2	39
Aliyah Boston	14	8	4	1	35
S. Cunningham	8	2	1	2	15
M. Billings	7	4	1	0	17

Liberty vs. Fever game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Fever and Liberty at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever
• Date: Saturday, July 18, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Conclusion

We predict the Fever, with a 54.1% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.